The internet/AI era is pushing people out of dense urban centers into suburbs and exurbs, whose residents use 2-5x more oil and energy. This 15-page report reviews population density data from 3,150 US counties. Suburbification and exurbification have already been adding 0.2-0.8% pa to oil demand, which is seen accelerating further.
Energy demand is usually modeled as a function of population and GDP, after adjusting for falling energy intensity and efficiency gains. This approach almost always suggests energy demand will fall in the developed world, as critiqued on pages 2-5.
But what if oil and energy demand start surprising to the upside in the developed world, due to changes in another demographic variable: population density. Some case studies are on page 6.
Oil use per capita can rise by 2-5x when people move from dense urban centers to suburbs and exurbs, as shown on page 7. Heating energy per capita can likewise rise 2-5x, as shown on page 8.
Prior studies into migration trends are reviewed on page 9, attributing accelerating suburbification to remote work, greater affordability, lower tax rates and a desire for more space/safety.
Hence we aggregated our own dataset, tracking the populations of 3,150 US counties, and their population density, annually back to 1970. The granularity is fascinating.
The data confirm a shift away from the densest cities, a shift towards sparser cities, suburbs and exurbs (e.g., the fastest growing major region in our dataset is Frisco, the commuter exurb, 30-miles North of Dallas).
Our favorite charts, case studies and data-points about suburbification and energy implications are on pages 10-13. Conclusions for oil and energy use are on pages 14-15.