Renewables: can they ramp up faster?
How fast can wind and solar accelerate, especially if energy shortages persist? This 11-page note reviews the top ten bottlenecks that set the ‘upper limit’ on renewables’ capacity additions. Seven…
Guyana: Economic Model
…Exploration results to-date are also tabulated in the ‘E&A’ tab, underpinning our resource estimates. After the COVID crisis, our NAV estimate has arguably increased by c9%, despite oil crashing in…
Investment bubbles and manias?
…the 2008 Financial Crisis. Each is described in detail. It is interesting to compare the characteristics of these past bubbles to New Energies today. We argue several transition technologies are…
Vehicle costs: cars, SUVs, hybrids, EVs and hydrogen?
…you appraise what a particular second hand purchase “should” cost (example below) if you are among the many non-drivers considering a vehicle purchase as a result of the COVID crisis….
Oil markets: the next up-cycle?
2022 oil markets now look 2Mbpd under-supplied, portending another industry up-cycle. 1.5bn bbls of excess inventories from the COVID crisis have likely been drained by early-2021, allowing OPEC to ramp…
Oil: what happens when you defer or curtail production?
…but generally we expect shut-ins and deferrals during the 2020 COVID crisis will lower effective production capacity. The Winners. Generally, super-giant Middle East carbonate reservoirs and recently completed shale wells…
Oil markets: the aftermath?
Oil and gas pricing could rebound sharply to the upside after the COVID crisis. Where we have long feared 2-3Mbpd of structural over-supply, continuing out to 2025, our new models…
Remote possibilities: working from home?
The COVID-19 crisis will structurally accelerate remote working. The opportunity can save 30% of commuter journeys by 2030, avoiding 1bn tons of CO2 per year, for a net economic benefit…
The structural ascent of online retail?
Online retail could structurally accelerate by c9% due to the COVID-19 crisis, as is projected in this model. A full breakdown of inputs and underlying data are included. Individuals that…
COVID-19 Impacts on Global Oil Demand?
…developing world, as a function of some simplifying assumptions: GDP declines, flight cancellations, travel reductions and the pace of the crisis’s resolution. Please note this model has been superceded by our…