Search results for: “climate model”
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Managed reforestation: growth rates by tree species over time?
This data-file tabulates the growth rates of 2,500 trees, in 12 different geographies, finding that younger trees accumualate biomass faster than older trees. The average tree widens its radius by 2mm per year. But on average, growth rates slow by c25% after 20-years, c40% after 40-years and 50% after 60-years.
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Biomass accumulation: CO2 fixed by trees and energy crops?
Different plant species fix 3-30 tons of CO2 per acre per year, as they accumulate biomass at 2-40 tons per hectare per year. The numbers matter for biofuels and for nature-based solutions. Hence this data-file compiles technical data into CO2 and biomass accumulation by plant species and by tree species, in different regions globally.
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Energy Transition Technologies?
This data-file “scores” the top technologies to transform the global energy industry and the world, as assessed by Thunder Said Energy. Each one is scored based on technical readiness, economic impact and the level of work we have conducted.
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Global oil demand forecasts: by end use, by product, by region?
This model forecasts long-run oil demand to 2050, by end use, by year, and by region; across the US, the OECD and the non-OECD. We see demand gently rising through the 2020s, peaking at 105Mbpd in 2026-28, then gently falling to 85Mbpd by 2050 in the energy transition.
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Vehicle depreciation rates: EVs versus ICEs?
This data-file quantifies the cost per mile of vehicle ownership across different categories by correlating second hand car prices with their accumulated mileage. Hybrids and regular passenger cars are most economical. SUVs and EVs are 2x more expensive. Hydrogen vehicles depreciate fastest and will have lost over 90% of their value after 100,000 miles.
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Integrated energy: a new model?
This 14-page note lays out a new model to supply fully carbon-neutral energy to a cluster of commercial and industrial consumers, via an integrated package of renewables, low-carbon gas back-ups and nature based carbon removals. This is remarkable for three reasons: low cost, high stability, and full technical readiness.
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Thermal power plant: loss attribution?
This data-file is a simple loss attribution for a thermal power plant. For example, a typical coal-fired power plant might achieve a primary efficiency of 38%, converting thermal energy in coal into electrical energy. Our loss attribution covers the other 62% using simple physics and industry average data-points.
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Global tin demand: upside in energy transition?
Global tin demand stands at 400kTpa in 2023 and rises by 2.5x to 1MTpa in 2050 as part of the energy transition. 50% of today’s tin market is for solder, which sees growing application in the rise of the internet, rise of EVs and rise of solar. Global tin supply and demand can be stress-tested…
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Phosphoric acid production costs?
Phosphoric acid production costs are $500-900/ton, for a 10% IRR on a new facility, with $1,000-2,000/Tpa of capex. This is using the ‘wet process’, where phosphate ores are reacted with sulfuric acid. CO2 intensity is 0.6 tons/ton. However, the numbers depend on product purity. There is also a 10x higher carbon, yet potentially lower-cost process,…
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Oxycombustion: economics of zero-carbon gas?
Oxy-combustion is a next-generation power technology, burning fossil fuels in an inert atmosphere of CO2 and oxygen. It is easy to sequester CO2 from its exhaust gases, helping heat and power to decarbonise. We argue that IRRs can be competitive with conventional gas-fired power plants.
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