Search results for: “climate model”
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Managed reforestation: growth rates by tree species over time?
This data-file tabulates the growth rates of 2,500 trees, in 12 different geographies, finding that younger trees accumualate biomass faster than older trees. The average tree widens its radius by 2mm per year. But on average, growth rates slow by c25% after 20-years, c40% after 40-years and 50% after 60-years.
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Photo opp: reforestation, CO2 fertilization and global temperatures?
Well-crafted reforestation projects may absorb atmospheric CO2 25% more rapidly than in the past, aligning species and site selection with the world’s changing climate. This work outlines the bio-chemistry of CO2 fertilization and temperature changes on photosynthetic productivity.
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CO2 removals: CO2OL Panama project?
The CO2OL Tropical Mix project has planted 9M trees on 13,000 hectares of degraded pasture land across 45 sites in Panama since 1995. 20-30% of the land is reserved for conservation. The project achieved a relatively high score of 88/100 on our usual assessment framework. CO2 credits are priced at $38/ton. We contributed $1,900 to…
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Natural gas: the EU green taxonomy’s 270g/kWh CO2 target?
The EU taxonomy is a set of guidelines that label some investments as ‘green’. This includes gas power with a CO2 intensity below 270g/kWh. Most conventional gas projects will not meet this hurdle, but CHPs and 20-30% blends of lower-carbon gas could accelerate.
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Russia conflict: pain and suffering?
This 13-page note presents 10 hypotheses on Russia’s horrific conflict. Energy supplies will very likely get disrupted, as Putin no longer needs to break the will of Ukraine, but also the West. Results include energy rationing and economic pain. Climate goals get shelved during the war-time scramble. Pragmatism, nuclear and LNG emerge from the ashes.
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World’s largest energy assets: by category and risk?
The largest hydrocarbon mega-projects are still 10-25x larger than the world’s largest solar and offshore wind projects. Risks are different in each category. But on a risked basis, global energy supplies may come in c2% lower than base case forecasts
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Crop production: how much does nitrogen fertilizer increase yields?
How much does fertilizer increase crop yields? Aggregating all of the global data, a good rule of thumb is that up to 200kg of nitrogen can be applied per acre, increasing corn crop yields from 60 bushels per acre (with no fertilizer) to 160 bushels per acre (at 200 kg/acre). But the relationship is logarithmic,…
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CH4 context: the largest methane leaks of all time?
Global methane emissions run to 360MTpa. 40% is agriculture, 40% is the energy industry and 20% is landfills. Within energy, over 30% of the leaks are from coal, 30% are from oil, 27% are from gas. This short note quantifies some of the largest methane leaks of all time, and provides context for the recent…
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Global oil demand forecasts: by end use, by product, by region?
This model forecasts long-run oil demand to 2050, by end use, by year, and by region; across the US, the OECD and the non-OECD. We see demand gently rising through the 2020s, peaking at 105Mbpd in 2026-28, then gently falling to 85Mbpd by 2050 in the energy transition.
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Vehicle depreciation rates: EVs versus ICEs?
This data-file quantifies the cost per mile of vehicle ownership across different categories by correlating second hand car prices with their accumulated mileage. Hybrids and regular passenger cars are most economical. SUVs and EVs are 2x more expensive. Hydrogen vehicles depreciate fastest and will have lost over 90% of their value after 100,000 miles.
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