Classic blunders famously include “never start a land war in Asia” and “never go up against a Sicilian when death is on the line”. But this video sets out what we believe are the three classic blunders that should be avoided by energy analysts, and in the energy transition, based on our own experiences over the past 15-years.
2024 has been a particularly forceful year for busting through blunders, so the video contains important reflections, and early resolutions for 2025, as we are trying to learn from the scars we have accumulated over the past six years of TSE research.
Our first classic blunder for energy analysts is never to assume that what you want to happen in the energy transition will defy the laws of economics. Costs matter. This is why we have ended up building over 200 economic models.
Our second classic blunder for energy analysts is never to write that a new physical or chemical process technology is “right on the cusp of commercialization”. We enjoy exploring new technologies, and deep-diving into patent libraries, but usually new technologies take longer than expected to reach commerciality.
Our third classic blunder is never to bet against semiconductor technologies. This seems important as the biggest theme in 2024 energy markets has been the rise of AI, but another semiconductor technology is solar, and there are other potentially world-changing semiconductor energy technologies waiting in the wings.
In case you are wondering, the video was recorded in Kadriorg Park, in Tallinn, because a sunny winter day in Estonia demands going outside!! Although it was somewhat windy in the park, and hence please accept our apologies that the audio went a little bit funny in places, and makes Rob sound like a robot.
Some recent research that seeks to avoid these energy transition blunders, and draw out opportunities discussed in the video, is linked below…