A Kardashev scale civilization uses all the energy it has available. Hence this 16-page report explores ten futuristic uses for global energy, which could absorb an additional 50,000 TWH pa by 2050 (60% upside), mainly from solar. And does this leap in human progress also allay climate concerns better than pre-existing roadmaps to net zero?
Most long-term energy forecasts simply lack imagination. In particular, most energy transition scenarios leave little room for new demand, which is why AI was a shock in 2024. But what if civilization was capable of harnessing vastly more energy?
The Kardashev scale was proposed by Nikolai Kardashev, in 1964. It measures the technological advancement of a civilization according to the amount of energy it is capable of harnessing and using. Kardashev Level 1.0 equates to a civilization that can use all the available energy on its planet. Currently, the useful energy consumption of all human civilization is equivalent to about 0.01% of the solar energy reaching the Earth’s surface at ground level, as discussed on pages 2-3.
In this note, we will go full sci-fi, and indulge the fantasy of near-infinite energy, e.g., from vast quantities of future solar available at 1c/kWh? How much incremental energy demand might human civilization want? Where could it go? And does this produce better human outcomes than limiting global energy demand in order to reach net zero by 2050?
Incremental demand for living space and material possessions are probably the two most obvious yet boring use cases, with demand sensitivities on pages 4-5.
More interesting and futuristic, however, the bulk of this note explores advanced materials that push the limits of engineering (page 6), an unstoppable rise of AI energy potentially culminating in Matrioshka Brains powered by Dyson Spheres (!) (page 7), a return of supersonic aviation (page 8), aerial vehicles (page 9), greening 1bn acres of desert (page 10), infrastructure projects that transform urban landscapes (page 11), electrochemical DAC to construction materials (page 12) and of course space-faring (page 13).
We propose how low-cost solar would provide the vast majority of the energy needed for these futuristic new energy uses, yet oil runs sideways and gas use still rises, in this future energy system (chart below), based on the economic reasoning on pages 14-16.
We started this note as a science fiction fantasy. But after writing it, we think this kind of energy transition is actually more likely to play out than our last published roadmap to net zero, whose deliverability has recently started to seem less likely.