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The future of offshore: fully subsea?
Offshore developments will change dramatically in the 2020s, eliminating new production platforms in favour of fully subsea solutions. The opportunity can increase a typical project’s NPV by 50%, reduce its breakeven by one-third and effectively eliminate upstream CO2 emissions. We have reviewed 1,850 patents to find the best-placed operators and service providers, versus others that…
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Floating production systems versus subsea tiebacks: the costs?
This model estimates the line-by-line costs of an FPSO project, across c45 distinct cost lines (in $M and $/boe). We estimate c$750M of cost savings for a tieback, and c$500M of cost savings for a fully subsea development, as compared against a traditional project with a traditional production facility.
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Platform supply vessels: what contribution to CO2?
This data-file calculates the contribution of Platform Supply Vessels (PSVs) to an oil and gas asset’s emissions. Our base case estimate is 0.1kg/boe for a productive asset in a well-developed basin. Numbers rise 4x in a remote basin, and by another c4x for smaller fields. 1kg/boe is possible. These emissions can be lowered by 10-20% through…
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Fully subsea offshore projects: the economics?
The model presents the economic impacts of developing a typical, 625Mboe offshore gas condensate field using a fully subsea solution, compared against installing a new production facility. The result is a c4% uplift in IRRs, a 50% uplift in NPV6 and a 33% reduction in the project’s gas-breakeven price. The economics are attractive.
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Oxycombustion: economics of zero-carbon gas?
Oxy-combustion is a next-generation power technology, burning fossil fuels in an inert atmosphere of CO2 and oxygen. It is easy to sequester CO2 from its exhaust gases, helping heat and power to decarbonise. We argue that IRRs can be competitive with conventional gas-fired power plants.
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Ten Themes for Energy in the 2020s
This short presentation describes our ‘Top Ten Themes for Energy in the 2020s’.
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Decarbonized power: how much wind and solar fit into the optimal grid?
What should future power grids look like? Our answer optimizes costs, stability and CO2. Renewables do not surpass 45-50%. By this point, over 70% of new wind and solar will fail to dispatch, while incentive prices will have trebled. Batteries help little. They raise power prices by a further 2-5x to accommodate just 3-15% more…
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Fugitive methane: what components are leaking?
This data-file looks through 35 technical papers to tabulate methane leaks from different components around the oil and gas industry. The largest are losses of well control (up to 1MTpa), then mid-downstream facilities (up to 10kTpa), compressors (up to 100T), pneumatic devices, wellheads and liquid unloading (up to 10T).
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Scaling Up Renewables and Batteries
Renewables would cap out at 40-50% of inflexible electricity grids, based on Monte Carlo analysis of wind, solar and batteries. Beyond 50%, new renewables’ curtailment rates surpass 70%, trebling their marginal cost. Batteries also increase incentive prices by 5-25x. Natural gas and demand-shifting are the best backstops.
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Electric Vehicles Increase Fossil Fuel Demand?
It is widely believed that electric vehicles will destroy fossil fuel demand. We find they will increase it by 0.7Mboed from 2020-35. EVs only start lowering net fossil fuel demand from 2037 onwards. The reason is that 3.7x more energy is consumed to manufacture each EV than the net road fuel it displaces each year;…
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