-
The structural ascent of online retail?
Online retail sales could structurally accelerate by c9% due to the COVID-19 crisis. A full breakdown of inputs and underlying data are included in this model. Individuals that work from home tend to make c63% more online retail purchases than in situ workers.
-
Do Methane Leaks Detract from Natural Gas?
Some commentators criticize that methane leaks detract from natural gas as a low-carbon fuel in the energy transition. Leaking 2.7-3.5% of natural gas could make gas “dirtier than coal”. However, when considered apples-to-apples, we find natural gas value chains leak 30% less methane than oil and 70% less methane than underground coal mining. This note…
-
Working remotely: the economics, the opportunity?
The economic benefits of working remotely are between $5-16k per employee per year, as modelled in shit data-file. Hence we quantify that remote work could step up to displace 30% of all commutes from a typical developed world economy by 2030. The conclusions are substantiated using US data.
-
COVID-19: what have the oil markets missed?
In the short-term, global oil demand could decline by -11.5Mbpd YoY in 2Q20 due to COVID-19. This is over 15x worse than the global financial crisis of 2008-9, too large for any coordinated production cuts to offset. However, in the medium-term, once the worst of the crisis is over, new driving behaviours could actually increase…
-
COVID-19 Impacts on Global Oil Demand?
Global oil demand could decline -22Mbpd YoY in 2Q20, due to COVID-19, with losses averaging 9-12 Mbpd across 2020. Our model looks line-by-line around the global oil market, to help you stress-test your own scenarios under different input assumptions.
-
COVID-19 Impacts on US Gasoline Demand?
US gasoline is the largest component of global oil demand, at c9% of the market. Hence we have modelled the disruption from COVID-19. -2Mbpd of YoY demand destruction is not inconceivable. But when the market turns, it may also recover very quickly.
-
How to structure a decarbonized gas value chain?
Gas value chains are the largest and lowest cost decarbonization opportunity on the planet, commercialising zero carbon energy for an incremental cost below $1/mcfe ($17/ton of CO2). This compares with end gas prices of $4-14/mcf and other CO2 mitigation options up to $800/ton. This 15-page note outlines how to structure a decarbonized gas value chain,…
-
Carbon Funds to Decarbonize Natural Gas
Natural gas can be decarbonized for a $1/mcf premium, which is used to seed new forests. Attractive cash flows and economics are modelled here. c50% of the carbon premia are dedicated to a carbon fund. It guarantees future CO2 obligations, optimizes emissions reductions, and finally disburses remaining funds.
-
CO2 intensity of coal production?
Producing a ton of coal typically emits 0.19T of CO2, equivalent to 50kg/boe. The numbers comprise mining, methane leaks and transportation. Hence domestic coal production will tend to emit 2x more CO2 than gas production, plus c2x more CO2 in combustion. However, numbers vary widely based on input assumptions, such as methane lakage rates, btu content…
-
Oil markets: meltdown?
There is now a 75% chance of an oil rout in 2020, with prices falling to $20-40/bbl. Our updated Monte Carlo models, outlined in this 4-page report, reflect the demand destruction due to COVID19 and the breakdown of OPEC’s accord. The range of uncertainties is vast, c5x higher than at YE19.
Content by Category
- Batteries (96)
- Biofuels (44)
- Carbon Intensity (48)
- CCS (64)
- CO2 Removals (9)
- Coal (41)
- Commentary (65)
- Company Diligence (104)
- Data Models (922)
- Decarbonization (162)
- Demand (129)
- Digital (86)
- Downstream (47)
- Economic Model (221)
- Energy Efficiency (76)
- Hydrogen (63)
- Industry Data (308)
- LNG (56)
- Materials (86)
- Metals (88)
- Midstream (45)
- Natural Gas (161)
- Nature (76)
- Nuclear (28)
- Oil (176)
- Patents (39)
- Plastics (44)
- Power Grids (156)
- Renewables (153)
- Screen (137)
- Semiconductors (35)
- Shale (58)
- Solar (72)
- Supply-Demand (53)
- Vehicles (95)
- Video (24)
- Wind (47)
- Written Research (407)