The impacts of COVID-19 on global oil demand are extremely uncertain. However, this model aims to help you bound the uncertainties, disaggregating 2020 oil demand in the developed and the developing world, as a function of some simplifying assumptions: GDP declines, flight cancellations, travel reductions and the pace of the crisis’s resolution.
Our base case forecast sees -11.5Mbpd of YoY demand destruction to be likely in 2Q20, averaging 6.5Mbpd of demand destruction in 2020. We can also construct scenarios where 2Q20 declines run past -20Mbpd YoY. To interrogate our assumptions, or stress-test your own scenarios, please download the model.