Search results for: “climate model”
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The route to net zero: an energy-climate model for 2-degrees
We have modeled the global climate system from 1750-2065, to simplify the science of energy transition. ‘Net zero’ is achievable by 2050. Atmospheric CO2 remains below 450ppm, consistent with 2-degrees warming. Fossil fuel usage is 10% higher than today, but the fossil fuel industry is transformed.
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Hydrogen: what GWP and climate impacts?
Hydrogen is an indirect GWP, as it breaks down in the atmosphere over 1-2 years, increasing the lifespan of other GHGs, such as methane. So what is hydrogen GWP versus methane? 1 ton of atmospheric H2 most likely causes 11x more warming than 1 ton of CO2 (the number for methane is 34x). Eight conclusions…
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Nature based solutions to climate change?
Nature based solutions are likely to deliver c20-25% of the decarbonization in a realistic roadmap to net zero. Reforestation is low-cost (c$50/ton), technically ready, convenient and helps nature. Key challenges are improving the quality of nature-based CO2 removals and accelerating momentum. We see upside for companies that can clear these hurdles. Our top ten conclusions…
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Economic costs of climate change?
This data-file contains our estimates into the economic costs of unmitigated climate change, using the latest disclosures from the IPCC as a framework. We estimate the total costs could reach $1.5trn per annum, including productivity losses, incremental energy costs and more prevalent natural disasters.
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Costs of climate change: a paradox?
The unmitigated costs of climate change will likely reach $1.5trn per annum after 2050, exerting an enormous toll on the world. However, the costs of the energy transition will exceed $3trn per annum. Our 14-page note explores whether this mismatch matters. Could it even undermine the energy transition?
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Biodiversity: a breakdown of species and carbon stocks?
550GT of Carbon is stored in the living biomass of 40M species currently inhabiting planet Earth. About 70,000 are vertebrate species and 6,000 are mammal species. What implications for biodiversity, climate change and nature based solutions?
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Energy market volatility: climate change?
This 14-page note predicts a staggering increase in global energy market volatility, which doubles by 2050, while extreme events that sway energy balances by +/- 2% will become 250x more frequent. A key reason is that the annual output from wind, solar and hydro all vary by +/- 3-5% each year, while wind and solar…
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CO2 intensity of wood: context by context?
This data-file calculates the CO2 intensity of wood in the energy transition. Context matters, and can sway the net climate impacts from -2 tons of emissions reductions per ton of wood through to +2 tons of incremental emissions per ton of wood. Calculations can be stress-tested in the data-file.
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Albedo of different landscapes: a challenge for reforestation?
Forests are darker than their surroundings? So does their low albedo curb our enthusiasm for nature-based solutions? This data-file aggregates the average albedo of different landscapes. The albedo impact of reforestation seems numerically very small. There is even an intriguing link where forests can increase the formation of clouds, which have the highest average albedo…
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Global energy: supply-demand model?
This global energy supply-demand model combines our supply outlooks for coal, oil, gas, LNG, wind and solar, nuclear and hydro, into a build-up of useful global energy balances in 2023-30. Energy markets can be well-supplied from 2025-30, barring and disruptions, but only because emerging industrial superpowers will continuing using high-carbon coal.
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