the research consultancy for energy technologies

Biofuels

  • Biofuel technologies: an overview?

    Biofuel technologies: an overview?

    Biofuels are currently displacing 3.5Mboed of oil and gas. But they are not carbon-free, and their weighted average CO2 emissions are only c50% lower. This data-file breaks down the biofuels market across seven key feedstocks, to help identify which opportunities can scale for the lowest costs and CO2, versus others that require further technical progress.

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  • Sustainable aviation fuel: flight path?

    Sustainable aviation fuel: flight path?

    As things stand, we argue Europe will be forced to scale back its SAF targets, due to Sustainable Aviation Fuel costs and land constraints. However, our 17-page report asks what could improve the outlook. Specifically, what yields, costs and other properties would we need to see from an oil crop to get excited about unlocking…

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  • Oil crops: the economics?

    Oil crops: the economics?

    The costs of oil crops, a crucial input for bio-diesel and SAF, will usually range from $900-1,200/ton, in order to generate acceptable 6-15% IRRs for producers. This translates into $3-4/gallon in feedstock costs. These oil crops also likely embed over 2 kg/gallon of CO2 intensity. The economics of oil crops can be stress-tested in this…

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  • Waste-to-energy: levelized costs of electricity?

    Waste-to-energy: levelized costs of electricity?

    A typical waste-to-energy plant, without subsidies, must charge 16c/kWh to generate a 10% IRR off of c$7,000/kW in capex costs, plus another 14c/kwh-equivalent of revenues from avoided landfilling and metals recovery. This economic model covers waste-to-energy levelized costs of electricity.

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  • Global biofuel production: by region, by liquid fuel?

    Global biofuel production: by region, by liquid fuel?

    Global liquid biofuel production ran at 3.2Mbpd in 2024, of which c60% is ethanol, c30% is biodiesel and c10% is renewable diesel. 65% of global production is from the US and Brazil. Global liquid biofuel production reaches 3.8Mbpd by 2030 on our forecasts.

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  • Costs of biogas upgrading to biomethane?

    Costs of biogas upgrading to biomethane?

    Costs of biogas upgrading into biomethane are estimated at $7/mcf off of capex cost of $400/ton, in this data-file. The largest contributor to total costs is carbon filtering, to remove siloxanes, VOCs and H2S, which we have modelled from first principles, at $2/mcfe. Underlying data into biogas compositions and impurities are also tabulated for reference.

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  • Sugar to ethanol: value in volatility?

    Sugar to ethanol: value in volatility?

    Sugar cane is an amazing energy crop, yielding 70 tons per hectare per year, of which 10-15% is sugar and 20-25% is bagasse. Crushing facilities create value from sugar, sugar-to-ethanol and cogenerated power. This 11-page note argues that more volatile electricity prices could halve ethanol costs or raise cash margins by 2-4x.

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  • Sugar to ethanol: the economics?

    Sugar to ethanol: the economics?

    This data-file captures the economics of ethanol production, as a biofuel derived from sugar. A 10% IRR requires $1-4/gallon ethanol, equivalent to $0.25-1/liter, or $60-250/boe. Economics are most sensitive to input sugar prices. Net CO2 intensity is at least 50% lower than hydrocarbons.

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  • Sugar production: the economics?

    Sugar production: the economics?

    The costs of sugar production are estimated at $260/ton for a 10% IRR at a world-scale sugar refinery, in a major sugar-producing region. Higher returns are achievable at recent world sugar prices, and by valorizing waste streams such as molasses for ethanol and bagasse for cogenerated electricity.

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  • Global biogas production by country?

    Global biogas production by country?

    Global biogas production has risen at a 10-year CAGR of 3% to reach 4.3bcfed in 2023, equivalent to 1.1% of global gas consumption. Europe accounts for half of global biogas, helped by $4-40/mcfe subsidies. This data-file aggregates global biogas production by country, plus notes into feedstock sources, uses of biogas and biomethane.

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