Natural Gas
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Global gas supply-demand in energy transition?
Global gas supply-demand is predicted to rise from 400bcfd in 2023 to 600bcfd by 2050, in our outlook, while achieving net zero would require ramping gas even further to 800bcfd, as a complement to wind, solar, nuclear and other low-carbon energy. This data-file quantifies global gas demand and supply by country.
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Gas turbines: what outlook in energy transition?
Gas turbines should be considered a key workhorse for a cleaner and more efficient global energy system. Installations will double to 100GW pa in 2024-30, and reach 140GW in 2030, surpassing their prior peak from 2003. This 16-page report outlines four key drivers in our outlook for gas turbines, and their implications.
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Global gas turbines by region and over time?
Global gas turbine additions averaged 50 GW pa over the decade from 2015-2024, of which the US was 20%, Europe was 10%, Asia was 50%, LatAm was 10% and Africa was 10%. Yet global gas turbine additions could double to 100 GW pa in 2025-30. This data-file estimates global gas turbine capacity by region and…
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US natural gas: the stuff of dreams?
Modeling US gas supply and demand can be nightmarishly complex. Yet we have evaluated both, through 2035. This 13-page report outlines the largest drivers of demand, requires a +3% pa CAGR from the key US shale gas basins, and argues the balance of probability lies to the upside.
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Seeing sense: digitize the downstream gas network?
Greater digitization of gas networks looks increasingly important, as gas, biogas, hydrogen and CCS all aim to shore up their futures. This 15-page note started as a deep-dive into the true leakage rates in downstream gas; and ended up finding opportunities in sensors and pipeline monitoring.
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Gas distribution: loss rates, leakage, unaccounted gas?
1-4% of all the gas that flows into downstream gas distribution networks may fail to be metered and monetized. Stated leakage rates are usually around 0.5%, but could be higher. This data-file aggregates data from Eurostat and the UK’s Joint Office of Gas Transporters.
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Global heat pump sales by country?
Global heat pump sales by country are tabulated in this data-file, for 14 countries/regions. Developed world heat pump sales rose at an 11% CAGR over the decade since 2012, reaching 7M units sold in 2022, but then unexpectedly fell by -10% in 2023, including YoY declines in 7 out of the 14 countries we are…
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Global CCS Projects Database
Over 400 CCS projects are tracked in our global CCS projects database. The average project is 2MTpa in size, with capex of $600/Tpa, underpinning over 400MTpa of risked global CCS by 2035, up 10x from 2019 levels. The largest CO2 sources are hubs, gas processing, blue hydrogen, gas power and coal power. The most active…
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US gas pipeline capex over time?
US gas pipeline capex ran at $12bn pa in 2023, but likely needs to treble to reach net zero by 2050, mainly to support 1GTpa of CCS. Midstream capex for natural gas, CO2 transportation and hydrogen production are forecast out to 2050 in this data-file. Numbers can be stress-tested in the model.
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Gas peaker plants: the economics?
Gas peaker plants run at low utilizations of 2-20%, during times of peak demand in power grids. A typical peaker costing $950/kW and running at 10% utilization has a levelized cost of electricity around 20c/kWh, to generate a 10% IRR with 0.5 kg/kWh of CO2 intensity. This data-file shows the economic sensitivities to volatility and…
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