Written Research
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Renewables returns: what IRRs for wind and solar?
Core IRRs for 100 renewables projects are calculated in this 15-page report. Past renewables returns have averaged 5% for solar, 6% for wind. But recent solar returns have reached 8-11%, due to cost deflation. Solar growth will therefore continue, even as policy support softens? And could this put pressure on power prices if load growth…
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Wi-Fi networks: finding a hotspot?
Could the electricity demand of Wi-Fi networks surprise to the upside due to AI, as 100bn future devices relay 1-10Mbps of data, including for machine vision? This 15-page report outlines Wi-Fi energy economics from first principles. Vastly more network traffic can be supported, simply via efficiency gains.
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Construction learnings: suspensa vix via fit?
This 17-page report gathers our learnings, after completing a house-building project, which painfully ended up 1-year late and 150% over budget. This teaches us not to underestimate construction challenges in our cost models; and what questions investors can ask to mitigate project risks?
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US load growth: electrical grounding?
What if US load growth disappoints from here, as the AI era progresses? We have previously published forecasts for +3% pa to 2030. Others are at 5-10% pa. Hence today’s 16-page report asks what assumptions are embedded in our outlook. There are six key risks. Our downside case is as low as +1% pa load…
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Microgrids: plug-and-play?
Microgrids are accelerating due to perceived power grid bottlenecks and rising reliability requirements, especially at AI data-centers. Hence this 17-page report explores how microgrids work, what they cost, where they make economic sense, and finds microgrid opportunities, especially with an increasingly plug-and-play supply chain.
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Global LNG: transformed supply chain?
The global LNG supply chain has been through a major transformation: restructurings, ramifying process technologies, the rise of BAHXs, and for the first time in 2025+, a truly integrated equipment supplier. Are terms of trade improving for project developers? Who wins future order flow? This 16-page report contains our outlook.
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Wind and solar: total resource estimates?
This 16-page report estimates the total global resource potential from solar and wind. Solar resources are 20-100x larger than for wind. And more economical. Wind turbine wake losses are a growing controversy. Hence, will future renewables growth shift more towards solar?
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Solar-powered EVs: ICE challenge?
Although renewables are c50% inflationary in static grids, this 12-page study shows how solar can be deflationary when coupled with flexible loads. By 2030, the total system costs of solar-powered EVs will be 12% below the costs of oil-fueled ICEs, on a pure economic basis, excluding CO2. We are updating our EV and oil demand…
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US shale gas: how much is left?
If the US ramps its gas output from 114bcfd to 150bcfd, mostly from shales, then how long can this resource last? And are any basins showing signs of maturing? This 16-page report finds marginal costs are already rising at $0.1/mcf/year, prices can spike to $4/mcf+, and future activity may shift to the Permian, creating opportunities…
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Nuclear SMRs: grown ups?
Can small modular reactors (SMRs) reignite growth in the nuclear industry, by halving capex to $3,000-4,000/kW, thus reducing levelized costs of zero-carbon electricity to 8-10 c/kWh? This 18-page report presents five considerations around SMR costs, to help understand the risks of persistently high capex requirements. We still see gas and solar dominating future load growth.
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