Oil markets: in the balance? (1Q21)

Devastating under-supplies of oil look less likely on our latest numbers. For 2021, our prior outlook for -3Mbpd under-supply softens to -0.6Mbpd due to lower demand and stronger recent US/Canada output.

Out to 2025, $60-70/bbl oil should suffice to balance oil markets, while higher prices could draw in 3Mbpd more shale and 1Mbpd more Saudi oil, plus a buffer of 500Mbbls undrawn excess inventories from the COVID crisis.

This 4-page note contains our key charts and conclusions on the oil outlook. For transparency, the data-files and models behind our outlook can be downloaded here.