Enhanced geothermal: what challenges?

Challenges for commercializing deep geothermal energy

This data-file tabulates the greatest challenges and focus areas for harnessing deep geothermal energy, based on reviewing 30 recent patents from 20 companies in the space.


The economic opportunity is exciting, with levelized costs of 10c/kWh in areas of ordinary geothermal gradients. Strong progress is also outlined in our deep-dive research note into the topic.

The patents confirm that the largest challenges are drilling long multi-lateral wells, which contact sufficient reservoir volumes to transfer heat from the subsurface into the working fluids, without depleting the geothermal resource.

Recent advances from the unconventional oil and gas industry are likely to be a crucial enabler from deep geothermal, based on the comments made in the patents.

Shale productivity: snakes and ladders?

Shale Productivity Snakes and Ladders

Unprecedented high-grading is now occurring in the US shale industry, amidst challenging industry conditions. This means 2020-21 production surprising to the upside, and we raise our forecasts +0.7 and +0.9Mbpd respectively. Conversely, when shale activity recovers, productivity could disappoint, and we lower our 2022+ forecasts by 0.2-0.9 Mbpd. This 7-page note explores the causes and consequences of this whipsaw effect.

Methane emissions from pneumatic devices, by operator, by basin

Methane emissions from pneumatic devices

Methane leaks from 1M pneumatic devices across the US onshore oil and gas industry comprise 50% of all US upstream methane leaks and 15% of all upstream CO2. This data-file aggregates data on 500,000 pneumatic devices, from 300 acreage positions, of 200 onshore producers in 9 US basins.


The data are broken down acreage position by position, from high-bleed pneumatic devices, releasing an average of 4.1T of methane/device/year to pnuematic pumps and intermediate devices, releasing 1.4T, through to low-bleed pneumatic devices releasing 160kg/device/year.

It allows us to rank operators. Companies are identified, with a pressing priority to replace medium and high bleed devices. Other companies are identified with best-in-class use of pneumatics (chart below). The download contains 2018 and 2019 data, so you can compare YoY progress by company.

A summary of our conclusions is also written out in the second tab of the data-file.  For opportunities to resolve these leaks and replace pneumatic devices, please see our recent note on Mitigating Methane.

Chevron: SuperMajor Shale in 2020?

Chevron Shale Technologies

SuperMajors’ shale developments are assumed to differ from E&Ps’ mainly in their scale and access to capital. Access to superior technologies is rarely discussed. But new evidence is emerging. This note assesses 40 of Chevron’s shale patents from 2019, showing a vast array of data-driven technologies, to optimize every aspect of shale.

Screen of companies detecting methane leaks?

Screen of companies detecting methane leaks

This data-file is a screen of companies detecting methane leaks and manufacturing equipment to minimize methane leaks. Mitigating methane is an important theme do ensure low carbon intensity as natural gas scales up and displaces coal in the energy transition. So how is this done? And which companies are enabling progress?


Methods available to monitor for methane emissions include Method 21, Optical Gas Imaging, Laser Based Imaging, Fixed Sensors, Ground Labs, Aircraft Flyovers, Drone Surveys and Satellite imagery. Technical data are presented on these different topics in the data-file, for example, on spatial resolution, costs and success rates of some of these different options. Some examples are below.

But the main purpose of the file is to aggregate details, into a screen of companies detecting methane leaks and manufacturing equipment to minimize methane leaks.

Looking across the screen, 50 companies are noted in the data-file. Around one-third are public, and two-thirds are private. Around two-thirds are deploying technically ready solutions today, while others are in the trial phase. 

More detailed case studies are also provided in the data-file. For example, we include a case study of Qube, which is an exciting company in advanced sensors, alongside peers such as Soofie and Earthview. Likewise, we included a case study of QLM, which is an exciting company in laser imaging, alongside peers such as Longpath and Mirico.

Operators are also screened, across the dozen largest Energy Majors, to estimate their methane leaks and broader methane intensity across the supply chain.

We have been adding to this screen continuously since 2019. Our sense is that the space is evolving very quickly. For example, in 2021-22, the EPA proposed new regulation, requiring operators to survey for methane leaks, bi-monthly, at 10kg/hr resolution, then to follow up with more sensitive methods to remediate any diagnosed leaks. Many of the companies that are now at commercial stages were founded in the 2015-20 timeframe. This suggests that as we continue updating the screen, more and more companies will be emerging.

Our note into mitigating methane in the energy transition remains a useful reference for the importance of this theme, and our key conclusions.

CO2 Intensity of Drilling Oil Wells?

CO2 Intensity of Drilling Oil Wells

This data-file estimates the CO2 intensity of drilling oil wells, in our usual units of kg/boe. The calculations are conducted bottom-up, based on fuel consumption at onshore, offshore and deep-water rigs; plus drilling days and typical resource volumes per well.

Drilling wells is not the largest portion of the oil industry’s total CO2 intensity. Nevertheless there is a 50x spread between the best and worst barrels, which is wider than other categories we have screened.

Prolific fields will have the lowest drilling-CO2 intensities, particularly where they are onshore (e.g., Saudi Arabia). Infill wells at mature deepwater fields may have the highest drilling-CO2.

Development Concepts: how much CO2?

CO2 intensity of steel and concrete

This data-file quantifies the costs and CO2 emissions associated with different oilfield development concepts’ construction materials.

We have tabulated c25 projects, breaking down the total tonnage of steel and concrete used in their topsides, jackets, hulls, wells, SURF and pipelines.  Included are the world’s largest FPSOs, platforms and floating structures; as well as new resources in shale, deepwater-GoM, Guyana, pre-salt Brazil and offshore Norway.

Infill wells, tiebacks and FPSOs make the most efficient use of construction materials per barrel of production. Fixed leg platforms are higher, then gravity based structures, then FLNG, and finally offshore wind (by a factor of 30x).

 

The cutting edge of shale technology?

shale technology technical papers

The database evaluates 950 technical papers that have been presented at shale industry conferences from 2018-2020.  We have summarised each paper, categorized it by topic, by author, by basin, ‘how digital’ and ‘how economically impactful’ it is.

The aim is to provide an overview of shale R&D, including the cutting edge to improve future resource productivity. We estimate 2020 was the most productivity-enhancing set of technical papers of any year in the database.

Recent areas of innovation include completion design, fracturing fluids, EORand machine learning. We also break down the technical papers, company-by-company, to see which operators and service firms have an edge (chart below).

Shale: Upgrade to Fiber?

DAS Quest for Idealized Completion

Completing a shale well depends on over 40 variables. Each one can be optimised using data. It follows that next-generation data could deliver next-generation shale productivity.

This note focuses on the most exciting new data methodology we have seen across the entire shale space: distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) using fiber-optic cables. It has now reached critical mass.

DAS will have six transformational effects on the shale industry. Leading operators and service companies are also assessed.

Leading Companies in DAS?

leading companies in DAS

This data-file quantifies the leading companies in Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS), the game-changing technology for enhancing shale and conventional oil industry productivity.

For operators (chart above), our rankings are based on assessing patents, technical papers and discussions with industry-participants.

For Services (chart below), our work summarises the companies, the ownership (e.g., public vs private), their offerings, their size and the technical papers they have filed.

Copyright: Thunder Said Energy, 2019-2023.