Search results for: “climate model”
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Global heat pump sales by country?
Global heat pump sales by country are tabulated in this data-file, for 14 countries/regions. Developed world heat pump sales rose at an 11% CAGR over the decade since 2012, reaching 7M units sold in 2022, but then unexpectedly fell by -10% in 2023, including YoY declines in 7 out of the 14 countries we are…
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Lithium ion battery volumes by chemistry and use?
The lithium ion battery market reached 900GWH in 2023, representing 7x growth in the past half-decade since 2018, and 20x growth in the past decade since 2013. Volumes treble again by 2030. This data-file breaks down global ithium ion battery volumes by chemistry and be end use. A remarkable shift to LFP is underway, and…
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Semiconductors: outlook in energy transition?
Semiconductors are an energy technology. And they are transforming the future global energy complex, across AI, solar, electric vehicles, LEDs and other new energies. This short article summarizes our outlook for semiconductors in energy transition, and resultant opportunities across our work.
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Decarbonize shipping: alternative fuel costs?
This data-file screens the costs of alternative shipping fuels, such as LNG, blue methanol, blue ammonia, renewable diesel, green methanol, green ammonia, hydrogen and e-fuels versus marine diesel. Shipping costs rise between 10% to 3x, inflating the ultimate costs of products by 0.1-30%, for CO2 abatement costs of $130-1,000/ton. We still prefer CO2 removals.
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Solar trackers: leading companies?
This data-file summarizes the leading companies in solar trackers, their pricing (in $/kW), operating margins (in %), company sizes, sales mixes and recent news flow. Five companies supply 70% of the market, which is worth $10bn pa, and increasingly gaining in importance?
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LNG plant compression: gas drives vs electric motors?
This data-file compares the costs of refrigerant compression at LNG plants, using gas turbines, electric motors powered by on-site CCGTs, or electric motors powered by renewable electricity. eLNG has higher capex costs, but higher efficiency, lower opex, and short payback times. Numbers in $/mcf and $/MTpa can be stress-tested in the data-file.
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Global biofuel production: by region, by liquid fuel?
Global liquid biofuel production ran at 3.2Mbpd in 2024, of which c60% is ethanol, c30% is biodiesel and c10% is renewable diesel. 65% of global production is from the US and Brazil. Global liquid biofuel production reaches 3.8Mbpd by 2030 on our forecasts.
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Conveyor costs: economics of moving bulk material?
Conveyors are often the most economical way to move bulk materials over long distances, e.g., from a mine to a processing plant, with an economic cost of $0.1/ton-km, in order to generate a 10% IRR on capex, opex and other costs. These costs are c30% lower than for heavy trucks, opex is at least 60%…
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Battery swapping: leading companies?
Leading companies in battery swapping are covered in this data-file, with the dozen largest companies operating around 25,000 stations by the end of 2024 (80% for 2-3 wheelers, 20% for cars or larger vehicles). Rapid expansion is guided. CATL says swap stations could meet the needs of one-third of electric vehicles by 2030. This data-file…
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Poly Vinyl Chloride: the economics?
This data-file estimates the cost of PVC production and the cost of VCM production, from first principles, based on capex, input materials, heat, electricity, labor and other opex. As a rule of thumb, 10% IRRs require c$900/ton PVC and c$750/ton VCM, and PVC will embed around 2 tons of CO2 per ton of PVC. Numbers…
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