Search results for: “climate model”
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Oklo: fast reactor technology?
Oklo is a next-generation nuclear company, based in California, recently going public via SPAC at a $850M valuation, backed by Sam Altman, of Y-Combinator and OpenAI fame. Oklo’s fast reactor technology absorbs high energy neutrons in liquid metal and targets ultimate costs of 4c/kWh. What details can we infer from assessing Oklo’s patents, and can…
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Commodity price volatility: energy, metals and ags?
Commodity price volatility tends to be lognormally distributed, based on the data from ten commodities, over the past 50-years. Means are 20% higher than medians. Skew factors average +1.5x. Standard errors average 50%, while more volatile prices have more upside skew.
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Sugar production: the economics?
The costs of sugar production are estimated at $260/ton for a 10% IRR at a world-scale sugar refinery, in a major sugar-producing region. Higher returns are achievable at recent world sugar prices, and by valorizing waste streams such as molasses for ethanol and bagasse for cogenerated electricity.
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Gas power generation across five-minute intervals?
Power generation data are aggregated for ten of the largest CCGTs and gas peaker plants in Australia, across five-minute intervals, May-2024 and May-2014. This makes for a fascinating case study into how gas turbines are used to stabilize power grids, backstop renewables, and how this has changed over time.
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Cemvita Factory: microbial breakthroughs?
Cemvita is a private biotech company, based in Houston, founded in 2017. It has isolated and/or engineered more than 150 microbial strains, aiming to valorize waste, convert CO2 to useful feedstocks, mine scarce metals (e.g., direct lithium extraction) and “brew” a variant of gold hydrogen from depleted hydrocarbon reservoirs. This data-file is our Cemvita Factory…
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Electricity demand for electric vehicles?
Global electricity demand for electric vehicles will rise from 120TWH in 2024 to 500 TWH in 2030 and 3,300 TWH in 2050, ultimately adding 11% upside to today’s global electricity demand, as part of our roadmap to net zero. This data-file quantifies electricity demand for EVs by region and over time, including data into the…
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Eastman: molecular recycling technology?
This patent screen reviews Eastman’s molecular recycling technology. Specifically, Eastman is spending over $2bn, to construct 3 plants, with 380kTpa of capacity, to break down hard-to-recycle polyesters back into component monomers, with 20-80% lower CO2 intensity than virgin product. We find evidence for 30-years of fine-tuning, and can bridge to 10% IRRs if buyers pay…
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Global heat pump sales by country?
Global heat pump sales by country are tabulated in this data-file, for 14 countries/regions. Developed world heat pump sales rose at an 11% CAGR over the decade since 2012, reaching 7M units sold in 2022, but then unexpectedly fell by -10% in 2023, including YoY declines in 7 out of the 14 countries we are…
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Lithium ion battery volumes by chemistry and use?
The lithium ion battery market reached 900GWH in 2023, representing 7x growth in the past half-decade since 2018, and 20x growth in the past decade since 2013. Volumes treble again by 2030. This data-file breaks down global ithium ion battery volumes by chemistry and be end use. A remarkable shift to LFP is underway, and…
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Semiconductors: outlook in energy transition?
Semiconductors are an energy technology. And they are transforming the future global energy complex, across AI, solar, electric vehicles, LEDs and other new energies. This short article summarizes our outlook for semiconductors in energy transition, and resultant opportunities across our work.
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