Global energy capex: building in boom times?
Energy transition is the largest construction project in human history. But building in boom times is associated with 2-3x cost inflation. This 10-page note reviews five case studies of prior…
Nature based solutions: CO2 removals in 2022?
…price inflation in 2023. But we are also aware of a new generation, of especially high-quality projects, coming to the market. The step-change feels similar to the contrast between modern…
Energy transition: three reflections on 2023?
…bringing this up to do some kind of victory lap. Actually, the opposite, I think could have done a better job of helping my clients to navigate 2023. https://thundersaidenergy.com/2022/10/06/runaway-train-energy-interest-rates-and-inflation/ The…
Offshore wind: levelized costs?
…is above 5% in 2023). Others publish numbers on a ‘real’ basis, which means that the price in Year 1 escalates over time, e.g., with inflation. So for example, what…
Global energy: ten themes for 2023?
…Especially for shale (page 9). Should it be for ever-greater shareholder returns, funding more growth to alleviate energy shortages, decarbonization, or eaten up by re-inflation in the energy services industry?…
LNG: top conclusions in the energy transition?
…LNG supply model. We have also screened LNG shipping companies. But the question that fascinates us most is whether upcoming project sponsors can avoid the cost inflation that marred the…
Hydrogen: overview and conclusions?
…in 1980 amidst the oil shocks, which in today’s money is similar to the $325bn Inflation Reduction Act. It completely missed its targets of unleashing 2Mbpd of synfuels by 1992,…
Renewables: the levelized cost paradox?
There is an economic paradox where shifting towards lower cost supply sources can cause inflation in the total costs of supply. Renewable-heavy grids are subject to this paradox, as they…
Post-combustion CCS: what energy penalties?
…most power plants will have already grasped options for heat recovery that are practical? CCS is increasingly being explored due to $85/ton incentives, made available under the US Inflation Reduction…
CCS challenges: by any amines necessary?
…CO2 trucks, CO2 shipping and CO2 disposal — on page 2. What now? Conventional CCS is likely to accelerate, due to reforms to the 45Q, in the US Inflation Reduction…