Search results for: “power electronics”
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Building energy infrastructure: constructive margin?
Energy transition is the largest construction project in history, with capex costs ultimately ramping up to $9trn per year. Overall, 40% of capex costs accrue to construction firms. Hence this 10-page note evaluates world-scale construction companies, their EBIT margin drivers, and who benefits from expanding power grids?
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Grid capacity: a wolf at the door?
This 17-page note outlines how capacity markets work, in order to stabilize global power grids. We argue reserve margins in the US grid are not as healthy as they look. Data centers are like wolves at the door. Capacity prices must rise. This boosts gas plants, grid-scale batteries and non-regulated utilities?
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Global biogas production by country?
Global biogas production has risen at a 10-year CAGR of 3% to reach 4.3bcfed in 2023, equivalent to 1.1% of global gas consumption. Europe accounts for half of global biogas, helped by $4-40/mcfe subsidies. This data-file aggregates global biogas production by country, plus notes into feedstock sources, uses of biogas and biomethane.
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Sugar to ethanol: value in volatility?
Sugar cane is an amazing energy crop, yielding 70 tons per hectare per year, of which 10-15% is sugar and 20-25% is bagasse. Crushing facilities create value from sugar, sugar-to-ethanol and cogenerated power. This 11-page note argues that more volatile electricity prices could halve ethanol costs or raise cash margins by 2-4x.
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Peaker plants: finding the balance?
Today’s power grids fire up peaker plants to meet peak demand. But the grid is changing rapidly. Hence this 17-page report outlines the economics of gas peaker plants. Rising volatility will increase earnings and returns by 40-50%, before grid-scale batteries come into the money for peaking?
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US gas pipeline capex over time?
US gas pipeline capex ran at $12bn pa in 2023, but likely needs to treble to reach net zero by 2050, mainly to support 1GTpa of CCS. Midstream capex for natural gas, CO2 transportation and hydrogen production are forecast out to 2050 in this data-file. Numbers can be stress-tested in the model.
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Electricity demand for electric vehicles?
Global electricity demand for electric vehicles will rise from 120TWH in 2024 to 500 TWH in 2030 and 3,300 TWH in 2050, ultimately adding 11% upside to today’s global electricity demand, as part of our roadmap to net zero. This data-file quantifies electricity demand for EVs by region and over time, including data into the…
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Electric vehicles: the road to cost parity?
Could electric vehicles deflate towards cost parity with ICEs in 2025-30, helping to re-accelerate EV adoption? This 13-page report contains a granular sum-of-the-parts cost breakdown for EVs vs ICEs. Then we consider battery deflation, power train deflation, small urban EVs, tax incentives, and the representativeness of low-cost Chinese EVs.
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Global vehicle sales by manufacturer?
Global vehicle sales by manufacturer are broken down in this screen. 20 companies produce 85% of the world’s vehicles, led by Toyota, VW, Stellantis, GM and Ford. The data-file contains key numbers and notes on each company, including each company’s sales of BEVs, PHEVs, general EV strategy, and how it has been evolving in 2024.
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Lithium ion battery volumes by chemistry and use?
The lithium ion battery market reached 900GWH in 2023, representing 7x growth in the past half-decade since 2018, and 20x growth in the past decade since 2013. Volumes treble again by 2030. This data-file breaks down global ithium ion battery volumes by chemistry and be end use. A remarkable shift to LFP is underway, and…
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