Search results for: “small scale LNG”
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Cummins: diesel engine and generator technology?
Cummins is a power technology company, listed in the US, specializing in diesel engines, underlying components, exhaust gas after-treatment, diesel power generation and pivoting towards hydrogen. We reviewed 80 patents from 2023-24. What outlook for Cummins technology and verticals in the energy transition?
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Moving targets: molecules, electrons or bits ?!
New AI data-centers are facing bottlenecked power grids. Hence this 15-page note compares the costs of constructing new power lines, gas pipelines or fiber optic links for GW-scale computing. The latter is best. Latency is a non-issue. Thus AI reshapes the future of US shale, midstream and fiber-optics?
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Power distribution: the economics?
Power distribution costs to residential, commercial and industrial consumers are estimated at 3.5 c/kWh in this model, to generate a 10% levered return, in a 5km x 10MW distribution line, at 17kV, rated up to 400A, with a capex cost of $150/kW-km, a 5% line loss and 40% annualized utilization. All of these inputs can…
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Solar generation: minute by minute volatility?
The volatility of solar generation is evaluated in this case study, by tracking the output from a 275MW solar project, at 5-minute intervals, throughout an entire calendar year. Output is -65% lower in winter than summer, varies +/-10% each day, and +/- 5% every 5-minutes, including steep power drops that in turn require back-ups.
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Wind generation case study: minute by minute volatility?
The volatility of wind generation is illustrated in this data-file, by aggregating the data for a large wind project in Australia, every five minutes, across an entire calendar year. Intra-day and inter-day volatility is 30-60% higher than for solar. 2-6 day feasts and famines are hard to backstop with batteries. Solar also cannibalizes wind?
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Building energy infrastructure: constructive margin?
Energy transition is the largest construction project in history, with capex costs ultimately ramping up to $9trn per year. Overall, 40% of capex costs accrue to construction firms. Hence this 10-page note evaluates world-scale construction companies, their EBIT margin drivers, and who benefits from expanding power grids?
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Grid capacity: a wolf at the door?
This 17-page note outlines how capacity markets work, in order to stabilize global power grids. We argue reserve margins in the US grid are not as healthy as they look. Data centers are like wolves at the door. Capacity prices must rise. This boosts gas plants, grid-scale batteries and non-regulated utilities?
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Coal power generation: minute-by-minute flexibility?
Coal power generation is aggregated in this data-file, at the largest single-unit coal power plant in Australia, across five-minute intervals, for the whole of 2023. The Kogan Creek coal plant produces stable baseload power, with average utilization rate of 85%. But it exhibits lower flexibility to backstop renewables than gas-fired generation.
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Peaker plants: finding the balance?
Today’s power grids fire up peaker plants to meet peak demand. But the grid is changing rapidly. Hence this 17-page report outlines the economics of gas peaker plants. Rising volatility will increase earnings and returns by 40-50%, before grid-scale batteries come into the money for peaking?
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US gas pipeline capex over time?
US gas pipeline capex ran at $12bn pa in 2023, but likely needs to treble to reach net zero by 2050, mainly to support 1GTpa of CCS. Midstream capex for natural gas, CO2 transportation and hydrogen production are forecast out to 2050 in this data-file. Numbers can be stress-tested in the model.
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