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Turning the tide: is another offshore cycle brewing?
Oil markets look primed for a new up-cycle by 2022, which could culminate in Brent surpassing $80/bbl. This is sufficient to unlock 20% IRRs on the next generation of offshore projects, and thus excite another cycle of offshore exploration and development. We address potential pushbacks to the thesis and outlines who benefits.
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Digitization after the crisis: who benefits and how much?
Digitization improves economics and CO2 credentials. But now it will structurally accelerate due to higher resiliency: Just 8% of digitized industrial processes will be disrupted due to COVID-19, compared to 80% of non-digitized processes. This 22-page report outlines the theme and who will benefit.
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The future of offshore: fully subsea?
Offshore developments will change dramatically in the 2020s, eliminating production platforms in favour of fully subsea solutions. The opportunity increases a project’s NPV by 50% and effectively eliminates upstream CO2. We reviewed 1,850 patents to find the best-placed operators and services. Others will be disrupted. The theme supports the ascent of low-carbon natural gas.
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Guyana: carbon credentials & capital costs?
Prioritising low carbon barrels will matter increasingly to investors, as they can reduce total oil industry CO2 by 25%. Hence, these barrels should attract lower WACCs, whereas fears over the energy transition are elevating hurdle rates elsewhere and denting valuations. In Guyana’s case, the upshot could add $8-15bn of NAV, with a total CO2 intensity…
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Patent Leaders in Energy
Technology leadership is crucial in energy. It drives costs, returns and future resiliency. Hence, we have reviewed 3,000 recent patent filings, across the 25 largest energy companies. Our 34-page report outlines the “Top 10 Technology Leaders” in energy, ranging across each sub-sector.
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New Risers for pre-salt Brazil?
Petrobras has patented next-generation riser designs, to handle sour-service crude from pre-salt Brazil. This is needed after riser-failures at Lula. But complexity is an order of magnitude higher for Petrobras’s new solution. A simpler alternative is the growing potential from thermo-plastic composite pipe.
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LNG Ships: a new record-setter?
Multiple records have just been broken for an LNG-powered ship, as construction completed at Heerema’s “Sleipnir” crane-lift vessel. It is a remarkable, LNG-powered machine, substantiating the 40-60MTpa upside we see for LNG demand, from fuel-intensive ships, after IMO 2020.
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Digital Deflation: How Hard to Save $1/boe?
A typical operator can readily save $1/boe via continued, digital deflation. Our numbers are derived from a new case study from Cognite, which is among the leaders in oilfield digitization, collaborating with cutting-edge E&Ps. Digitization remains the most promising opportunity to improve offshore economics.
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Can Technology Revive Offshore Oil?
We model our ‘top twenty’ technology opportunities for offshore oil. These can double deep-water NPVs and improve IRRs 4-5%. To re-excite investment, it is crucial to harness the best technologies.
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