For green hydrogen to become competitive, total electrolyser costs must deflate by over 75% from current levels around $1,000/kW. This 14-page note breaks down the numbers and the challenges, based on patents and technical papers. We argue 15-25% total cost deflation may be more realistic if manufacturers also strive to make a margin in the future.
The importance of green hydrogen cost deflation is quantified on pages 2-4, using worked examples from the power industry, trucking industry and by comparison to blue hydrogen.
Total installed costs of hydrogen electrolysers are decomposed on pages 5-7, across forty distinct categories. Cost drivers are also discussed.
Benefits of scale will allow for deflation. But how much? We answer this question (pages 8-9), by comparison to deflation in other technologies.
Beware false prophets. Our review of 50 patents shows that some headline cost deflation may come at the cost of lower efficiency, resiliency, longevity or safety (pages 10-11).
Technology leaders are profiled on pages 12-14 after looking across 13,600 patents globally.