Navigating the energy transition in 2024 requires focusing in upon bright spots, because global energy priorities are shifting. Emerging nations are ramping coal to avoid energy shortages. Geopolitical tensions are escalating. So where are the bright spots? This 14-page note makes 10 predictions for 2024.
Global coal use hit new highs of 8.5GTpa in 2023, 1GTpa higher than was foreseen 2-5 years ago, as China and India are prioritizing energy security above decarbonization. Implications for energy transition sentiment are discussed on pages 2-3, and we have reconsidered our global energy supply-demand balances on pages 4-6.
Geopolitical tensions are now re-shaping the energy transition in 2024. The tensions and their consequences are described on pages 7-9.
Our outlook for shale is updated on page 10. Our outlook for solar is on page 11. The #1 materials bottleneck for 2024 is on page 12. Our #1 theme for energy transition decision-makers is on page 13. And a snapshot of heavily-discussed companies follows on page 14.
Our new year’s resolutions, as articulated in the video here, are to publish more regular overviews of key conclusions, not to shy away from predictions even when they are not exactly what we want to happen, and to help our clients get information to ‘build cool stuff’ that resolves tensions discussed above, and drive the energy transition in 2024.