This model captures global energy demand by region through 2050, rising from 80,000 TWH in 2019 to 140,000 MWH in 2050. Population rises 0.6% pa. Energy use per global person rises at 1.1% pa, from 11 MWH pp pa to 15 MWH pp pa. So total demand rises at c2% pa. Meeting the energy needs of human civilization is crucial in the energy transition.
Total global energy consumed by human civilization has averaged 80,000 TWH around the year 2019, on a useful energy basis. This comprises an average of 11 MWH pp pa of useful energy across 7.7bn people.
Global energy demand growth averaged 2.6% per annum from 1990 to 2019, of which 1.3% per annum is due to population growth and 1.2% per annum is due to rising energy consumption per capita.
Our outlook through 2050 is that total global energy consumption will surpass 140,000 TWH, on a useful energy basis. This represents a 1.8% pa growth rate.
0.6% is from population growth, as the World Bank sees global population reaching 9.6bn people by 2050, as tracked in our GDP and population input file. An interesting nuance in the population forecasts is that the growth rate slows over time. In turn, this suggests energy demand growth through 2050 will be somewhat front loaded.
1.1% is from rising useful energy demand per person. But these are not aggressive numbers. Small tweaks in our model of global energy demand by region and through 2050 can yield another 10-30% upside again.
Inequalities and catch-ups. Today, useful energy consumption runs at 30MWH pp pa in Europe and Japan, and 40 MWH pp pa in North America. Conversely, the poorest 4bn people in the world, especially in Africa, India and other Asia, consume less than 4 MWH pp pa (more here). Even by 2050, this group is only seen consuming 8 MWH pp pa of useful energy, which is 60-80% below Western levels.
Electrification is another theme in the data-file. Total useful electricity consumption surpassed 30,000 TWH pa in 2024, equivalent to 4 MWH of useful energy per global person, or 36% of all useful energy consumption. The other 64% was heating fuel or engine-based combustion.
Electrification is doubling, from 2% pa in the past decade to 4% pa in the next decade, as part of the energy transition. Thus by 2050, we think that electricity will comprise 60% of total useful energy consumption (please see our power grids research), creating $2trn of medium-term upside for capital goods companies as a result.
What share for wind and solar? Our forecasts for wind and solar step up to provide 47,000 TWH of useful energy by 2050. This would be 35% of total global energy demand. We also see nuclear re-accelerating. The remaining c60% of decarbonization, were it to occur, would have needed to be sourced from somewhere, and we think the best candidate is low-carbon natural gas, which could be combined with CCS and CO2 removals for climate reasons.
Different regions are represented in the data-file. China is worth a passing mention: energy demand per capita is apt to look higher than it is, because a remarkable 60-65% of all China’s energy is used for heavy industry and manufacturing, creating products that are ultimately exported and consumed elsewhere. Assumptions and growth-rates for different regions can be stress-tested in the data-file to run your own scenarios.