This video captures our top five reflections on energy, materials and industrials in 2025, which are also reasons for excitement in 2026. New technologies are unlocking new opportunities, re-shaping cost curves, “uncommoditizing commodities”, unlocking more energy and demand-side flexibility, and we are building high-conviction conclusions to create value amidst this transition.
At the time of recording this video, we have entered the final stretch of 2025. Everyone is exhausted by tumultuous news flow and sharp recalibrations. But if we weren’t all so exhausted, there is justification for great excitement about 2026?!
(1). ‘Get To’ beats ‘Have To’. Across 2025, we saw less focus and more skepticism on the feasibility of net zero. Yet we saw more interest in the amazing and cool opportunities in new technologies, across AI, autonomous vehicles, industrial robots, mobile robotics and drones, which all unlock amazing new opportunities, to be excited about.
(2) Cost curves are shifting. We have now constructed over 50 supply-demand models and over 200 economic models. But the cost supply equations across many commodities are being re-shaped by new technologies, and leading companies are actively driving deflation across our tracker files.
(3) Escaping commoditization. Sometimes commodity-like value chains start to behave less like commodities and embed other valuable characteristics, or even brand value. We have seen this particularly in natural gas value chains, especially across types of gas generation or more integrated supply chains in LNG. We expect more ‘uncommoditization’ amidst electrification, and as flexibility becomes increasingly valuable in power grids.
(4) Unlocking infinite energy. Solar resources could unlock 200x upside on the energy available to human civilization. This theme continued accelerating in 2025. Future solar could underpin round-the-clock power. And variable solar can also energize flexible loads across EVs, battery swapping, even flexible data centers and other futuristic options.
(5) Building Conviction. TSE is a research firm focused on energy, materials and industrials. But in a year like 2025, that has meant grappling with a huge number of new topics, as everyone’s focus has been recalibrating. We have been building conviction around several key ideas, such as efficiency gains limiting load growth and upside across several key commodities.
For 2026, we are looking forward to tracing out new opportunities enabled by technologies, deepening our cost curve analysis, exploring how industrials can create persistent value, and building conviction around energy, materials and industrials value chains. We are delighted to work with you and help you.