This 19-page report explores the world’s progress towards net zero, amidst the harsh economic reality of 2025+. Which decarbonization technologies are still progressing, which are scaling back, and why? Is there still a plausible route to net zero? Or what if the current trajectory is ultimately seen to be enough?
In prior years, we have closed out the year by looking across all of our work, and updating our ‘roadmap to net zero’, which aimed to model out the most likely pathway for the world to reach net zero global CO2 emissions by 2050.
Reaching net zero by 2050 seemed possible in 2023, optimistic in 2024, and implausible by 2025, as re-capped on pages 2-3.
We have five hypotheses for how the energy transition will progress from here, which should matter to investors, companies and policymakers. We lay out our hypotheses on page 4.
“Appetite to pay green premia is waning“. To test this hypothesis, we reviewed the rate of delays and cancellations across projects in CCS, blue hydrogen, DAC and nature-based CO2 removals, on pages 5-9.
“Clean themes that are still gaining ground are economical first, or convenient first, but low-carbon second”. To test this hypothesis, we revisited each line in our roadmap to net zero, checking which themes are still accelerating, on pages 10-13.
“If climate change is inevitable, it seems less rational to invest in climate change prevention; and more rational to invest in adaptation, especially where it enhances competitiveness and resiliency”. This would be a profound shift in mindset. It could be reasonable, as long as the current trajectory points to mild-moderate climate change and not existential climate change.
Hence our latest forecasts for global energy supply-demand, global CO2 emissions by source, and our climate projections are discussed on pages 14-16.
It would take a technology moonshot to deliver net zero by 2050, without requiring anyone to pay large CO2 abatement costs. Our best guesses for the most promising moonshot technologies are explored on pages 17-19.