Metals
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Lithium: global demand forecasts?
This data-file estimates global lithium demand amidst the ramp of electric vehicles, the rise of AI/robotics, and integrates with our oil market models. The data are disaggregated across electric vehicles, new vehicle types, consumer electronics, grid-scale batteries and conventional material uses.
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Rare Earth magnets: building attraction?
Will Rare Earth magnets shift from being commoditized and mostly Chinese-made, to a higher-value market, sustaining a moat for leading Western companies? Especially as demand inflects in the AI era? Our answers in this 14-page report are based on a site visit to Europe’s first large-scale Rare Earth magnet plant, and subsequent economic modeling.
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Rare Earth magnet manufacturing: the economics?
The economics of Rare Earth magnet manufacturing are captured in this data-file. A $60/kg magnet price unlocks a 10% IRR at a new facility converting Rare Earths, steel and ferroboron into sintered NdFeB magnet products, repaying capex and cover other magnet manufacturing costs.
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Rare Earth magnet demand by category over time?
Global demand for Rare Earth magnets was 280kTpa in 2024, of which 250kTpa was NdFeB magnets. Demand is seen rising at 9% pa to 2030, then 6% pa to 2050, reaching 1.3MTpa. The largest sources of upside are in robotics and EVs, at c30% each.
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REEcycle: rare earth recycling from magnets?
Rare Earth recycling may recover Rare Earths at 50% lower costs and with over 90% less energy and CO2 than primary production, as long as the recycling process is simple, and only requires a small quantity of readily available commodity chemicals. This is exemplified by patents from REEcycle, which can recover over 90% of the…
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Rare Earth market: by metal, by use, by value?
The global Rare Earth market is 390kTpa of mined Rare Earth Oxide equivalents, which is processed to yield 150kTpa of sellable Rare Earth materials, with a value of $7bn pa. But “price” is not “value”. This data-file breaks down the global Rare Earth market, by metal, by price (in $/kg), by volume (in Tpa), and…
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Autonomous mining trucks: case studies?
Autonomous mining trucks have been gaining share since 2010, and now number almost 2,000 in total, across dozens of mines globally. So this data-file presents some case studies of autonomous mining trucks, and provides yet another example of digital progress. The work also shows leading companies in autonomous mining trucks, among adopters and mining equipment…
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Rare earth companies: screen of miners and refiners?
This screen of Rare Earth miners and refiners captures 20 Rare Earth companies, their flagship projects, and economic parameters such as capex, ore grades, end products and NPVs. A vibrant landscape is evolving, especially for NdPr and DyTb, although the market is still risking pre-produdction projects heavily.
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Yttria-stabilized zirconia: sticker shock?
Global yttrium output is just 10-15kTpa, worth $100M pa, of which c90% is controlled by China. Yet a supply disruption for this critical metal could have ripple effects comparable to an oil shock: de-railing developed world load growth, aircraft manufacturing and the rise of AI? This 15-page report tells the story of yttria-stabilized zirconia, explores…
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Rare Earth mining and refining: the economics?
The costs of Rare Earth mining and refining are captured in this model, requiring a $70/kg blended product price, to generate a 20% IRR on $150,000/Tpa of capex. Primary energy intensity exceeds 100 MWH/ton and CO2 intensity exceeds 20 tons/ton. Economics are particularly sensitive to ore grade, recovery rates and chemical costs.
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