Midstream
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Midstream opportunities in the energy transition?
The midstream industry moves molecules, especially energy-molecules, and especially in pipelines. Despite the mega-trend of electrification, there are still strong midstream opportunities in the energy transition, backstopping volatility and moving new molecules. This short note captures our top ten conclusions. (1) Our overall outlook on the US midstream industry sees the total tonnage of molecules…
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US shale: outlook and forecasts?
This model sets out our US shale production forecasts by basin. It covers the Permian, Bakken and Eagle Ford, as a function of the rig count, drilling productivity, completion rates, well productivity and type curves. US shale likely adds +1Mbpd/year of production growth from 2023-2030, albeit flatlining in 2024, then re-accelerating on higher oil prices?
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US gas pipeline capex over time?
US gas pipeline capex ran at $12bn pa in 2023, but likely needs to treble to reach net zero by 2050, mainly to support 1GTpa of CCS. Midstream capex for natural gas, CO2 transportation and hydrogen production are forecast out to 2050 in this data-file. Numbers can be stress-tested in the model.
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Midstream gas: pipelines have pricing power ?!
FERC regulations are surprisingly interesting!! In theory, gas pipelines are not allowed to have market power. But they increasingly do have it: gas use is rising, on grid bottlenecks, volatile renewables and AI; while new pipeline investments are being hindered. So who benefits here? Answers are explored in this 13-page report.
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CCS: what CO2 purity for transport and disposal?
The minimum CO2 purity for CCS starts at 90%, while a typical CO2 disposal site requires 95%, CO2-EOR requires 96%, CO2 pipelines require 97% and CO2 liquefaction or shipping requires >99%. This data-file aggregates numbers from technical papers and seeks to explain CO2 purity for transport and disposal.
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Oil markets: rising volatility?
Oil markets endure 4 major volatility events per year, with a magnitude of +/- 320kbpd, on average. Their net impact detracts -100kbpd. OPEC and shale have historically buffered out the volatility, so annual oil output is 70% less volatile than renewables’ output. This 10-page note explores the numbers and the changes that lie ahead?
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Energy market volatility: climate change?
This 14-page note predicts a staggering increase in global energy market volatility, which doubles by 2050, while extreme events that sway energy balances by +/- 2% will become 250x more frequent. A key reason is that the annual output from wind, solar and hydro all vary by +/- 3-5% each year, while wind and solar…
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US gas transmission: by company and by pipeline?
This data-file aggregates granular data into US gas transmission, by company and by pipeline, for 40 major US gas pipelines which transport 45TCF of gas per annum across 185,000 miles; and for 3,200 compressors at 640 related compressor stations.
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Pump costs: energy economics of electric pumps?
Total pump costs can be ballparked at $600/kW/year of power, of which 70% is electricity, 20% operations and maintenance, 10% capex/capital costs. But the numbers vary. Hence this data-file breaks down the capex costs of pumps, other pump costs, pump energy consumption and the efficiency of pumps from first principles.
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Storage tank costs: storing oil, energy, water and chemicals?
Storage tank costs are tabulated in this data-file, averaging $100-300/m3 for storage systems of 10-10,000 m3 capacity. Costs are 2-10x higher for corrosive chemicals, cryogenic storage, or very large/small storage facilities. Some rules of thumb are outlined below with underlying data available in the Excel.
Content by Category
- Batteries (85)
- Biofuels (42)
- Carbon Intensity (49)
- CCS (63)
- CO2 Removals (9)
- Coal (36)
- Company Diligence (87)
- Data Models (795)
- Decarbonization (156)
- Demand (104)
- Digital (50)
- Downstream (44)
- Economic Model (195)
- Energy Efficiency (75)
- Hydrogen (63)
- Industry Data (261)
- LNG (48)
- Materials (79)
- Metals (70)
- Midstream (43)
- Natural Gas (144)
- Nature (75)
- Nuclear (22)
- Oil (161)
- Patents (38)
- Plastics (43)
- Power Grids (118)
- Renewables (147)
- Screen (108)
- Semiconductors (30)
- Shale (50)
- Solar (67)
- Supply-Demand (45)
- Vehicles (90)
- Wind (40)
- Written Research (336)
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