Oil
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US shale: outlook and forecasts?
This model sets out our US shale production forecasts by basin. It covers the Permian, Bakken, Eagle Ford, Marcellus/Utica and Haynesville, as a function of the rig count, drilling productivity, completion rates, well productivity and type curves. The data-file was last updated in May-2025, revising liquids growth negative in 2025-26, which in turn tightens US…
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Commodity demand: how sensitive to GDP growth?
How sensitive is global commodity demand to GDP growth? This 15-page report runs regressions for 25 commodities. Slower GDP growth matters most for oil markets, which are entering a new, more competitive, era. China is also slowing. But we still see bright spots in gas, metals, materials in our 2025 commodity outlook.
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Global commodity demand: sensitivity to GDP?
Global commodity demand is levered to GDP. Specifically, for each +/- 1% acceleration or deceleration in global GDP, commodity demand tends to accelerate or decelerate by +/- 1.4%, with a 70% R-squared, across 25 examples that are indexed in this data-file. Oil demand sensitivity to GDP is particularly interesting.
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Shale water costs: transport, treatment and disposal?
Shale water costs might average $0.3/bbl for filtering and recycling, $0.4/bbl to procure new water, $1/bbl for disposal and $3/bbl for full treatment back to agricultural/cooling-quality water. There is variability in water properties and throughout shale basins. This data-file aggregates disclosures into shale water costs.
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Commodity intensity of global GDP in 30 key charts?
The commodity intensity of global GDP has fallen at -1.2% over the past half-century, as incremental GDP is more services-oriented. So is this effect adequately reflected in our commodity outlooks? This 4-page report plots past, present and forecasted GDP intensity factors, for 30 commodities, from 1973->2050. Oil is anomalous. And several commodities show rising GDP…
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Oil demand: making millions?
What does it take to move global oil demand by 1Mbpd? This 22-page note ranks fifteen themes, based on their costs and possible impacts. We still think oil demand plateaus around 105Mbpd mid-late in the 2020s, before declining to 85Mbpd by 2050. But the risks now lie to the upside?
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Japan oil demand: breakdown over time?
Japan’s oil demand peaked at 5.8Mbpd in 1996, and has since declined at -2.0% per year to 3.4Mbpd in 2023. To some, this trajectory may be a harbinger of events to come in broader global oil markets? While to others, Japan has unique features that do not generalize globally? Hence this report and data-file…
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Commodity price volatility: energy, metals and ags?
Commodity price volatility tends to be lognormally distributed, based on the data from ten commodities, over the past 50-years. Means are 20% higher than medians. Skew factors average +1.5x. Standard errors average 50%, while more volatile prices have more upside skew.
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Offshore oilfields: development capex over time in Norway?
Across 130 offshore oil fields in Norway, going back ato 1975, real development capex per flowing barrel of production has averaged $33M/kboed. Average costs have been 2x higher when building during a boom, when one-third of projects blew out to around $100M/kboed or higher. The data support countercyclical investment strategies in energy.
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Oil markets: rising volatility?
Oil markets endure 4 major volatility events per year, with a magnitude of +/- 320kbpd, on average. Their net impact detracts -100kbpd. OPEC and shale have historically buffered out the volatility, so annual oil output is 70% less volatile than renewables’ output. This 10-page note explores the numbers and the changes that lie ahead?
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