The North Field is now the most important conventional energy asset on the planet. It produces 4% of world energy, 20% of global LNG and aims to ramp another 50MTpa of low-carbon LNG by 2028. But what if Qatarโs exceptional reliability gets disrupted by unforeseen conflict with Iran? Without wishing to catastrophize, this 18-page note explores important tail-risks for near-term energy balances and long-term energy transition.