Global yttrium output is just 10-15kTpa, worth $100M pa, of which c90% is controlled by China. Yet a supply disruption for this critical metal could have ripple effects comparable to an oil shock: de-railing developed world load growth, aircraft manufacturing and the rise of AI? This 15-page report tells the story of yttria-stabilized zirconia, explores supply risks, and their implications.
Everyone knows about oil price shocks and energy crises. Back to 1900, primary energy has absorbed 4% of global GDP, but this jumped to 13% at peak in 1979-80, re-shaping all future energy policies. But we argue that disruption in Rare Earth supplies could represent similar shocks in years ahead, on page 2.
To illustrate this point, this 15-page report profiles the global yttrium market, which might seem like a niche, even irrelevant metal. But if you study what a disruption of this metal would do, then the ripple effects are quite terrifying.
You cannot make a gas turbine or a jet engine without yttria-stabilized zirconia, which is used as a thermal barrier coating, to prevent turbine blades from melting under the extreme heat of combustion. This is based on unique materials properties, shown on pages 3-7.
If you cannot make gas turbines, then you cannot meet US load growth, which means you also cannot enjoy the benefits of AI, from autonomous vehicles, to drones and next-generation robotics, discussed on pages 8-9.
To some, this may illustrate an urgent need to ramp up Western production of Rare Earths, such as yttrium. Hence we have reviewed the process of separating Rare Earths via solvent extraction on pages 11-13.
Companies that are exposed to this theme, and make equipment for the solvent extraction process, are discussed on page 14.
Leaders in vapor deposition for YSZ on gas turbine and jet engine components are profiled on page 15.
After writing this report into yttria-stabilized zirconia, our conclusion is that the supply disruptions of Rare Earths have potential to be a world-changing theme, where self-sufficiency and re-shoring efforts are about to step up by an order of magnitude, in case of an increasingly adversarial world.