Search results for: “vessel offshore shipping”
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Container freight: shipping economics?
This data-file models the total costs of shipping a container c10,000 nautical miles from China to the West, in a 20,000 TEU vessel. Emerging fuels can lower the CO2 intensity of shipping from their baseline of 0.15kg/TEU-mile, by 60-90%, but freight costs inflate by 30%-3x.
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Global shipping and the switch from fuel oil?
The 240MTpa shipping-fuels market will be disrupted from 2020, under IMO sulphur regulations. Hence, this data-file breaks down the world’s 100,000-vessel shipping fleet into 13 distinct categories. We see 40-60MTpa upside to LNG demand from 2040.
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LNG shipping: company screen?
This data-file is a screen of LNG shipping companies, quantifying who has the largest fleet of LNG carriers and the cleanest fleet of LNG carriers (i.e., low CO2 intensity). Many private companies are increasingly backed by private equity. Many public companies have dividend yields of 4-9%.
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LNG as a Shipping Fuel: the Economics
This data-file provides line-by-line cost estimates for LNG as a shipping fuel, for trucked LNG, small-scale LNG and bunkered LNG. After IMO 2020 regulations buoy diesel pricing, it should be economical to fuel newbuild ships with small-scale LNG; and in the US it should be economical to convert pre-existing ships to LNG.
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Offshore oilfields: development capex over time in Norway?
Across 130 offshore oil fields in Norway, going back ato 1975, real development capex per flowing barrel of production has averaged $33M/kboed. Average costs have been 2x higher when building during a boom, when one-third of projects blew out to around $100M/kboed or higher. The data support countercyclical investment strategies in energy.
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Offshore Capex for Technology Leaders?
The lowest-cost offshore projects are not “easy oil”. They are the ones being developed with leading technologies. This data-file measures a -88% correlation coefficient between different Major’s offshore patent filings in 2018 and their most recent projects’ capex costs.
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Offshore offsets: nature based solutions in the ocean?
Nature based carbon offsets could migrate offshore in the 2020s, sequestering 3GTpa of CO2 for a prices of $20-140/ton. In a more extreme case, if CO2 prices reached $400/ton, oceans could potentially decarbonize the whole world. This 19-page note outlines the opportunity in seaweed and kelp.
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Shipping in batteries: the economics?
What if it were possible to displace diesel from high-cost, high-carbon island grids, by charging up large batteries with gas- and renewable power, then shipping the batteries? We model the economics to be cost-competitive, while CO2 emissions can be halved. Futher battery cost deflation will also help.
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Offshore Economics: the Impact of Technology
This data-file quantifies the impact that technology can have on offshore economics. A typical offshore oilfield is modelled across 250 lines. The project is then re-modelled capturing our “top twenty” offshore technologies, to quantify the potential improvement: a doubling of NPV6, and a c4-5% improvement in IRR.
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Turning the tide: is another offshore cycle brewing?
Oil markets look primed for a new up-cycle by 2022, which could culminate in Brent surpassing $80/bbl. This is sufficient to unlock 20% IRRs on the next generation of offshore projects, and thus excite another cycle of offshore exploration and development. We address potential pushbacks to the thesis and outlines who benefits.
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