climate model - Thunder Said Energy search

Urea production: the economics

This data-file captures the economics of producing urea, an important fertilizer and intermediate material. We estimate a marginal cost of $325/ton, based on $2/mcf-e energy inputs. CO2 intensity is 1.5 tons/ton. But costs will increase well above $800/ton during times of energy shortages.

Capacitor banks: the economics?

This model captures the economics of power factor correction via installing capacitor banks upstream of inductive loads. A 10% IRR is derived from a system costing $30/kVAR, reducing real power losses by 0.5%, thus saving on 8c/kWh electricity prices (75% of savings), $3.5/kW demand charges (15%) and a $20/ton CO2 price (10%).

Chlor-alkali process: the economics?

This data-file captures chlor-alkali process economics, to produce 80MTpa of chlorine and 90MTpa of caustic soda. Our base case requires $600 per ecu for a 10% IRR and a growth project costing $600/Tpa. Electricity is 45% of cash cost. CO2 intensity is 0.5 tons/ton. Interestingly, chlor-alkali plants can demand shift.

Offshore oil: marginal cost?

What is the marginal cost of offshore oil and gas? This data-file captures a small project, off Africa, with $15/boe development cost, $15/boe opex, 70% fiscal take. Break-even is at $35-45/bbl. But a $90/bbl forward curve may be needed for definitive go-ahead.

Pumped hydro: the economics?

This data-file assesses pumped hydro costs, to back up wind and solar. A typical project has 0.5GW of capacity, 12-hours storage duration, 80% efficiency, and capex costs of $2,250/kW. Thus it requires a 25c/kWh storage spread, in order to generate a 10% IRR.

Power transmission: inter-connectors smooth solar volatility?

Can large-scale power transmission smooth renewables’ volatility? To answer this question, this horrible 18MB data-file aggregates 20-years of hour-by-hour solar insolation arriving at four cities in the US. The volatility in year-by-year can be halved by a single inter-connector.

Power grids: global investment?

Global investment into power networks averaged $280bn per annum in 2015-20, of which two-thirds was for distribution and one-third was for transmission. Amazingly, these numbers step up to $600bn in 2030, >$1trn in the 2040s and can be as large as all primary energy investment.

August 16, 2022

CO2 removals: Eden Reforestation, Madagascar?

Eden Reforestation is a non-profit aiming to counteract deforestation and extreme poverty. It has planted c1bn trees and provides a fair income to c15,000 people. We appraised its activities in Madagascar on our CO2 removals framework, and made a $1,500 donation.

Crop production: what CO2 intensity?

The CO2 intensity of producing corn averages 0.23 tons/ton, or 75kg/boe. 50% is from N2O emissions, a powerful greenhouse gas, from the breakdown of nitrogen fertilizer. Producing 1 kWh of food energy requires 9 kWh of fossil energy.

Heap leaching: energy economics?

This data-file captures the energy economics of leaching in the mining industry, especially the costs of heap leaching, for the extraction of copper, nickel, gold, silver, other precious metals, uranium, and Rare Earths. The data-file allows you to stress test costs in $/ton of ore, $/ton of metal, capex, opex, chemicals costs, energy intensity and…

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