Search results for: “climate model”
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Renewables: share of global energy and electricity by country?
This data-file is an Excel “visualizer” for some of the key headline metrics in global energy: such as total global energy use, electricity generation by source and growing renewables penetration; broken down country-by-country, and showing how these metrics have changed over time.
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Grid-scale battery costs: the economics?
Grid-scale batteries are envisaged to store up excess renewable electricity and re-release it later. Grid-scale battery costs are modeled at 20c/kWh in our base case, which is the ‘storage spread’ that a LFP lithium ion battery must charge to earn a 10% IRR off c$1,000/kW installed capex costs. Other batteries can be compared in the…
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Offshore wind costs are inflating?
This data-file tabulates the capex costs of 35 offshore wind projects in the UK, with 8.5GW of capacity, which have been installed since the year 2000. There is little evidence for deflation. Rather, breakeven power prices appear to have risen at a 2.5% CAGR over the past decade. Our modelling is show in the data-file.
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Scaling Up Renewables and Batteries
Renewables would cap out at 40-50% of inflexible electricity grids, based on Monte Carlo analysis of wind, solar and batteries. Beyond 50%, new renewables’ curtailment rates surpass 70%, trebling their marginal cost. Batteries also increase incentive prices by 5-25x. Natural gas and demand-shifting are the best backstops.
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Platform supply vessels: what contribution to CO2?
This data-file calculates the contribution of Platform Supply Vessels (PSVs) to an oil and gas asset’s emissions. Our base case estimate is 0.1kg/boe for a productive asset in a well-developed basin. Numbers rise 4x in a remote basin, and by another c4x for smaller fields. 1kg/boe is possible. These emissions can be lowered by 10-20% through…
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CO2 intensity of coal production?
Producing a ton of coal typically emits 0.19T of CO2, equivalent to 50kg/boe. The numbers comprise mining, methane leaks and transportation. Hence domestic coal production will tend to emit 2x more CO2 than gas production, plus c2x more CO2 in combustion. However, numbers vary widely based on input assumptions, such as methane lakage rates, btu content…
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COVID-19 Impacts on US Gasoline Demand?
US gasoline is the largest component of global oil demand, at c9% of the market. Hence we have modelled the disruption from COVID-19. -2Mbpd of YoY demand destruction is not inconceivable. But when the market turns, it may also recover very quickly.
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The structural ascent of online retail?
Online retail sales could structurally accelerate by c9% due to the COVID-19 crisis. A full breakdown of inputs and underlying data are included in this model. Individuals that work from home tend to make c63% more online retail purchases than in situ workers.
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Costs of home heating technologies
Residential heating will likely cost 5-30c/kWh, with a CO2 intensity of 0.1-0.4 kg/kWh. Gas fired boilers are lowest cost, even after paying $50/ton for carbon offsets. Electric heat pumps are most efficient. Oil furnaces and electric heaters are higher-cost and higher-carbon. The numbers can be stress-tested in this data-file.
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Electric Rail Energy Economics?
This data-file models the energy economics of constructing new electric rail lines, to displace automobile traffic and accelerate the energy transition. Electric rail saves around 1kT of CO2 per track-mile per year. But capex costs are challenging. Double digit returns may be achievable on large lines, outside the United States. CO2 prices do not materially…
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