Search results for: “power factor”
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Offshore oilfields: development capex over time in Norway?
Across 130 offshore oil fields in Norway, going back ato 1975, real development capex per flowing barrel of production has averaged $33M/kboed. Average costs have been 2x higher when building during a boom, when one-third of projects blew out to around $100M/kboed or higher. The data support countercyclical investment strategies in energy.
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Renewables plus batteries: co-deployments over time?
More and more renewables plus batteries projects are being developed as grids face bottlenecks? On average, projects in 2022-24 supplemented each MW of renewables capacity with 0.5MW of battery capacity, which in turn offered 3.5 hours of energy storage per MW of battery capacity, for 1.7 MWH of energy storage per MW of renewables.
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Energy transition: key conclusions from 1Q24?
This note summarizes the key conclusions from our energy transition research in 1Q24 and across 1,400 companies in total. Volatility is rising. Power grids are bottlenecked. Hence what stands out in capital goods, clean-tech, solar, gas value chains and materials? And what is most overlooked?
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Oklo: fast reactor technology?
Oklo is a next-generation nuclear company, based in California, recently going public via SPAC at a $850M valuation, backed by Sam Altman, of Y-Combinator and OpenAI fame. Oklo’s fast reactor technology absorbs high energy neutrons in liquid metal and targets ultimate costs of 4c/kWh. What details can we infer from assessing Oklo’s patents, and can…
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Transformer shortages: at their core?
Transformers are needed every time voltage steps up or down in the power grid. But lead times have now risen from 12-24 weeks to 1-3 years. And prices have risen 70%. Will these shortages structurally slow new energies and AI? Or improve transformer margins? Or is it just another boom-bust cycle? Answers are explored in…
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Back up: does ramping renewables displace gas?
This 12-page note studies the output from 10 of the largest gas power plants in Australia, at 5-minute intervals, comparing 2024 versus 2014. Ramping renewables to c30% of Australia’s electricity mix has not only entrenched gas-fired back-up generation, but actually increased the need for peakers?
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Building energy infrastructure: constructive margin?
Energy transition is the largest construction project in history, with capex costs ultimately ramping up to $9trn per year. Overall, 40% of capex costs accrue to construction firms. Hence this 10-page note evaluates world-scale construction companies, their EBIT margin drivers, and who benefits from expanding power grids?
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Grid capacity: a wolf at the door?
This 17-page note outlines how capacity markets work, in order to stabilize global power grids. We argue reserve margins in the US grid are not as healthy as they look. Data centers are like wolves at the door. Capacity prices must rise. This boosts gas plants, grid-scale batteries and non-regulated utilities?
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Global biogas production by country?
Global biogas production has risen at a 10-year CAGR of 3% to reach 4.3bcfed in 2023, equivalent to 1.1% of global gas consumption. Europe accounts for half of global biogas, helped by $4-40/mcfe subsidies. This data-file aggregates global biogas production by country, plus notes into feedstock sources, uses of biogas and biomethane.
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Sugar to ethanol: value in volatility?
Sugar cane is an amazing energy crop, yielding 70 tons per hectare per year, of which 10-15% is sugar and 20-25% is bagasse. Crushing facilities create value from sugar, sugar-to-ethanol and cogenerated power. This 11-page note argues that more volatile electricity prices could halve ethanol costs or raise cash margins by 2-4x.
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