Stand on a street corner in Tallinn, in the summer of 2019, and you might encounter the scene below: not one, but two autonomous delivery robots, comfortably passing one-another.
The fuel economy of these small electric machines is truly transformational, around 100x better than a typical motorcycle (the trusty workhorse of take-aways past), around 200x better than a typical car and around 400x better than a typical pick-up.
Large implications follow for energy supply and demand, if such delivery-robots take off…
Our conclusion is to have found further evidence that transportation technology is evolving. Forward thinking energy companies will be preparing for the change, as evidenced by their patents, their projects and their venturing.
We have all heard the criticism that shale oil is “too light”, so its ascent will create a surplus of natural gas liquids and a shortage of heavier distillates. Less discussed is the opportunity in this imbalance. Hence this note highlights one such opportunity, based on an intriguing patent from Chevron, which could convert ethylene into diesel and jet fuel, to maximise value as its shale business ramps up.
Conclusions and Further Work?
Shale’s light product slate may create opportunities for integrated companies. Chevron’s ethylene-to-diesel patents are one example. But we have also seen a surprising uptick among other Oil Majors in patent filings for GTL, for oxidative coupling of methane and for a process to convert C3-4s into gasoline and diesel range molecules.
Our positive outlook on shale is best illustrated by our deep-dive note, Winner Takes All, but also be recent work focusing on the emerging opportunities with Fibre-Optic Sensing and Shale-EOR.
Can we help? If you would like to register any interest in the topics above, to guide our further work, then please don’t hesitate to contact us.
The downstream industry is currently debating whether IMO 2020 sulphur regulations will be resolved quickly or slowly. We think the market-distortions may be prolonged by under-appreciated technology challenges.
Opportunities amidst the Challenge?
So if the market-distortions of IMO 2020 have longevity, who will stand to benefit? We are maintaining a data-file of the ‘Top Technologies for IMO 2020’ around the industry, which give specific companies an edge. The data file now contains over 25 technologies across 7 Majors.
Al-Shahrani, F., Koseoglu, O. R. & Bourane, A. (2018). Integrated System and Process for In-Situ Organic Peroxide Production and Oxidative HeteroAtom Conversion. Saudi Aramco Patent.
Koseoglu, O. R., (2018). Integrated Isomerisation and Hydrotreating Process. Saudi Aramco Patent CN107529542
Hanks, P. (2018). Trim Alkali Metal Desulfurisation of Refinery Fractiions. ExxonMobil Patent US2018171238
Next-generation technology in small-scale LNG has potential to reshape the global shipping-fuels industry. Especially after IMO 2020 sulphur regulations, LNG should compete with diesel. Opportunities in trucking and shale are less clear-cut.
This note outlines the technologies, economics and opportunities for LNG as a transport fuel, following a three-month investigation.
- Why technology matters. Pages 2-4 of the note describe incumbent technologies in small-scale LNG, and the need for superior solutions.
- The cutting edge . Pages 5-7 draw on patents and technical papers to describe next-generation technologies, at the cutting edge of small-scale LNG. We model that they are economic. They can can provide LNG to the market at $10/mcf.
- Potential to transform shipping-fuels. Pages 9-13 find strong economic upside for novel LNG technologies in the shipping industry, with potential to create 40-60MTpa of incremental LNG demand, looking across the global shipping fleet.
- Less positive on LNG as a trucking fuel. Pages 14-15 explain why the economics are more challenging for LNG use in land-transportation, i.e., trucking.
- Less positive on LNG use in shale. Page 16 explains, similarly, why LNG is less advantageous in the shale patch than converting rigs and frac spreads to piped gas.
- Other technologies. Page 17 notes other companies with interesting offerings in small-scale LNG liquefaction, including advances by Exxon and Shell.
Have further questions? Please contact us and we’ll be happy to help: [email protected]
So far we have reviewed 400 patents in the downstream oil and gas industry (ex-chemicals). A rare few prompted an excited thought — “that could be really useful when IMO 2020 comes around”.
Specifically, from January 2020, marine fuel standards will tighten, cutting the maximum sulphur content from 3.5% to 0.5%. It will reduce the value of high-sulphur fuel oil, and increase the value of low-sulphur diesel.
This note summarises the top dozen proprietary technologies we have seen to capitalise on the shift, summarised by company (chart below).
We have assessed whether gas is a competitive trucking fuel, comparing LNG and CNG head-to-head against diesel, across 35 different metrics (from the environmental to the economic). Total costs per km are still 10-30% higher for natural gas, even based on $3/mcf Henry Hub, which is 5x cheaper than US diesel. The data-file can be downloaded here.
The challenges are logistical. Based on real-world data, we think maintenance costs will be 20-100% higher for gas trucks (below). Gas-fired spark plugs need replacing every 60,000 miles. Re-fuelling LNG trucks requires extra safety equipment.
Specially designed service stations also elevate fuel-retail costs by $6-10/mcf. Particularly for LNG, a service station effectively ends up being a €1M regasification plant (or around $250/tpa, costs below).
We remain constructive on the ascent of gas (below), but road vehicles may not be the best option.
To flex our input assumptions, please download our data-model, comparing LNG, CNG and other trucking fuels across 35 different metrics .