Robot delivery: Unbelievable fuel economy…

Stand on a street corner in Tallinn, in the summer of 2019, and you might encounter the scene below: not one, but two autonomous delivery robots, comfortably passing one-another.

The fuel economy of these small electric machines is truly transformational, around 100x better than a typical motorcycle (the trusty workhorse of take-aways past), around 200x better than a typical car and around 400x better than a typical pick-up.

Large implications follow for energy supply and demand, if such delivery-robots take off…

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Our conclusion is to have found further evidence that transportation technology is evolving. Forward thinking energy companies will be preparing for the change, as evidenced by their patents, their projects and their venturing.

Lost in the Forest?

In 2019, Shell pledged $300M of new investment into forestry. TOTAL, BP and Eni are also pursuing similar schemes. But can they move the needle for CO2? In order to answer this question, we have tabulated our ‘top five’ facts about forestry. We think Oil Majors may drive the energy transition most effectively via developing better energy technologies in their portfolios.

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Aerial Ascent: why flying cars fly

Aerial vehicles will do in the 2020s what electric vehicles did in the 2010s. They will go from a niche technology to a global mega-trend that no forecaster can ignore. The technology is advancing rapidly. Fuel economies and costs will both be transformational. Aerial vehicles accelerate the energy transition.

These conclusions are all explained in depth, in our new, 20-page insight…

Pages 2-3 demonstrate the need for aerial vehicles, as urban mobility has begun deteriorating, after 200-years’ of progress.

Page 4-5 recap the military development of drones, stretching back to the late 19th Century, accelerating with the US’s Predator and Reaper programmes.

Pages 6-9 identify leaders among 110 companies, employing 50,000 people, which have now flown over 40 aerial vehicles; from start-ups to aerospace heavy-weights.

Pages 10-11 describe average flight parameter across the different vehicle concepts we screened, including speeds, range, payload and fuel-economy of aerial vehicles

Pages 11-13 show electric vehicles leading on the metrics above, with unparalleled fuel economies, which we replicated, bottom-up via the equations of flight.

Pages 13-14 shows the future is battery powered for aerial vehicles, at today’s battery densities, creating a vast opportunity for fast-charging infrastructure.

Pages 14-18 calculate exceptional economics can be attained, comprehensively bridging to levels that are 65-85% below today’s ground-transportation.

Pages 19-20 summarise the hurdles, presenting the best counter-evidence we can find to legal, regulatory and “adoption” pushbacks.

Oil Companies Drive the Energy Transition?

There is only one way to decarbonise the energy system: leading companies must find economic opportunities in better technologies. No other route can source sufficient capital to re-shape such a vast industry that spends c$2trn per annum. We outline seven game-changing opportunities. Leading energy Majors are already pursuing them in their portfolios, patents and venturing. Others must follow suit.

Pages 2-3 show that today’s technologies are not sufficient to decarbonise the global energy system, which will surpass 100,000TWH pa by 2050. Better technologies are needed.

Pages 4-6 show how Oil Majors are starting to accelerate the transition, by developing these game-changing technologies. The work draws on analysis of 3,000 patents, 200 venture investments and other portfolio tilts.

Pages 7-13 profile seven game-changing themes, which can deliver both the energy transition and vast economic opportunities in the evolving energy system. These prospects cover electric mobility, gas, digital, plastics, wind, solar and CCS. In each case, we find leading Oil companies among the front-runners.

Why the Thunder Said?

Energy transition is underway. Or more specifically, five energy transitions are underway at the same time. They include the rise of renewables, shale oil, digital technologies, environmental improvements and new forms of energy demand. This is our rationale for establishing a new research consultancy, Thunder Said Energy, at the nexus of energy-technology and energy-economics.

This 8-page report outlines the ‘four goals’ of Thunder Said Energy; and how we hope we can help your process…

Pages 2-5 show how disruptive energy technologies are re-shaping the world: We see potential for >20Mbpd of Permian production, for natural gas to treble, for ‘digital’ to double Oil Major FCF, and for the emergence of new, multi-billion dollar companies and sub-industries amidst the energy transition.

Page 6 shows how we are ‘scoring’ companies: to see who is embracing new technology most effectively, by analysing >1,000 patents and >400 technical papers so far.

Page 7 compiles quotes from around the industry, calling for a greater focus on technology.

Page 8 explains our research process, and upcoming publication plans.

Under-investment risks in the energy transition?

Fears over the energy transition are now restricting investment in fossil fuels, based on our new paper, published in conjunction with the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, linked here.    

They have elevated capital costsby 4-7% for oil and by c25% for coal, compared with the early 2010s.

  • One consequence will be to concentrate capital into renewables, gas,  and shorter-cycle oil projects (i.e.,  shale).
  • But there will also be negative consequences, risking long-run supply shortages of oil and coal.
  • Companies are also being pressured to ‘harvest’ their existing assets, rather than maximising potential value in the 2020s, which may impact valuations.  

For further details please see the full paper, linked here, or contact us. 

250-years of Energy Disruption?

In 2018, we reviewed 250-years of energy transitions, arguing that another great energy transition is now on hand.

It will occur over the next century. Thus for another hundred years, today’s energy industry will remain vitally important. In addition, new sources of supply will create unimaginable new sources of energy demand.

A podcast summarising the work is available from the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.