Can we model the supply and demand for gas turbines? This 21-page report presents our attempt. We ultimately see gas turbine manufacturing capacity expansions outpacing demand growth. AI is also helping to expand. However, ‘accelerated orders’ may have distorted order books in 2025.
This 21-page report was prompted by a large number of client requests, to model the global manufacturing capacity for gas turbines and the global demand for gas turbines.
What is global gas turbine manufacturing capacity? Even conceptually, this is quite a difficult question, and supply-demand in this industry is materially different from other industries that we track, as discussed on pages 2-3.
Hard numbers are not available across the entire global industry. To prove this, the vast range of forecasts from different market research firms is presented on page 4.
We want to do better. We unpack ‘how to make a gas turbine’, and what we know about the c25 main global locations where gas turbines are assembled, on pages 5-8.
Hence we can estimate global gas turbine manufacturing capacity by facility, by country, and by company, which is presented and discussed on pages 9-11. Capacity is higher than seen previously.
Gas turbine manufacturing capacity is expanding. Costs are surprisingly low. The expansion plans of individual companies are discussed on pages 12-15. Capacity is expanding faster than previously seen.
AI is helping to debottleneck the supply chain, most interestingly, via detecting defects, reducing assembly errors and using additive manufacturing for bottlenecked parts, per pages 16-18.
Our conclusion is that very strong orders for gas turbines largely reflect perceptions of a tight market, which have caused buyers to ‘accelerate’ orders. This could more sensationalistically be labeled “panic buying”. Our rationale for this conclusion, why it matters, and revised forecasts are discussed on pages 19-21.