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Search results for: โ€œoil demandโ€

  • Global oil demand forecasts: by end use, by product, by region?

    Global oil demand forecasts: by end use, by product, by region?

    This model forecasts long-run oil demand to 2050, by end use, by year, and by region; across the US, the OECD and the non-OECD. We see demand gently rising through the 2020s, peaking at 105Mbpd in 2026-28, then gently falling to 85Mbpd by 2050 in the energy transition.

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  • Global oil demand: breakdown by product by country?

    Global oil demand: breakdown by product by country?

    This data-file breaks down global oil demand, country-by-country, product-by-product, month-by-month, across 2017-2024. Global oil demand ran at 103 Mbpd in 2024, for +1.0 Mbpd of growth, according to our databases. For perspective, global oil demand rose at +1.2Mbpd per year in the 30-years from 1989->2019, so not much evidence, on face value, that “peak oil…

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  • Japan oil demand: breakdown over time?

    Japan oil demand: breakdown over time?

    Japanโ€™s oil demand peaked at 5.8Mbpd in 1996, and has since declined at -2.0% per year to 3.4Mbpd in 2023. To some, this trajectory may be a harbinger of events to come in broader global oil markets? While to others, Japan has unique features that do not generalize globally? Hence this report and data-file…

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  • Oil demand: how much can you save in a crisis?

    Oil demand: how much can you save in a crisis?

    Oil consuming countries are encouraged to have emergency plans to save 7-10% of their demand in a crisis. This data-file outlines how. c10Mbpd could be saved globally. But it requires extreme measures. Largest are odd-even rationing, ride-sharing, free public transit and lower highway speed limits.

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  • COVID-19 Impacts on Global Oil Demand?

    COVID-19 Impacts on Global Oil Demand?

    Global oil demand could decline -22Mbpd YoY in 2Q20, due to COVID-19, with losses averaging 9-12 Mbpd across 2020. Our model looks line-by-line around the global oil market, to help you stress-test your own scenarios under different input assumptions.

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  • On the road: long-run oil demand after COVID-19?

    On the road: long-run oil demand after COVID-19?

    Another devastating impact of COVID-19 may still lie ahead: a 1-2Mbpd upwards jolt in global oil demand. This 17-page note upgrades our 2022-30 oil demand forecasts by 1-2Mbpd above our pre-COVID forecasts. The increase is from road fuels, reflecting lower mass transit, lower load factors and resultant traffic congestion.

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  • Oil demand: making millions?

    Oil demand: making millions?

    What does it take to move global oil demand by 1Mbpd? This 22-page note ranks fifteen themes, based on their costs and possible impacts. We still think oil demand plateaus around 105Mbpd mid-late in the 2020s, before declining to 85Mbpd by 2050. But the risks now lie to the upside?

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  • Oil demand: the rise of autonomous vehicles?

    Oil demand: the rise of autonomous vehicles?

    We are raising our medium-term oil demand forecasts by 2.5-3.0 Mbpd to reflect the growing reality of autonomous vehicles. AVs improve fuel economy in cars and trucks by 15-35%, and displace 1.2Mbpd of air travel. But their convenience also increases travel. This note outlines the opportunity.

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  • Japanโ€™s oil demand: decline and fall?

    Japanโ€™s oil demand: decline and fall?

    Japanโ€™s oil demand peaked at 5.8Mbpd in 1996, and has since declined at -2.0% per year to 3.4Mbpd in 2024. ย To some, this trajectory be a harbinger of events to come in broader global oil markets? However, this 7-page report finds unique features that do not generalize globally?

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  • Global oil demand: rumors of my death?

    Global oil demand: rumors of my death?

    โ€˜Rumors of my death have been greatly exaggeratedโ€™. Mark Twainโ€™s quote also applies to global oil consumption. This note aggregates demand data for 8 oil products and 120 countries over the COVID pandemic. We see 3.5Mbpd of pent-up demand โ€˜upsideโ€™, acting as a floor on medium-term oil prices.

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