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Nuclear fusion: what are the challenges?
Nuclear fusion could provide a limitless supply of zero-carbon energy from the 2030s onwards. The goal of this 20-page note is simply to understand the challenges for fusion reactors, especially deuterium-tritium tokamaks. Innovations need to improve EROI, stability, longevity and costs.
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US LNG: new perceptions?
Perceptions in the energy transition are likely to change in 2022, amidst energy shortages, inflation and geopolitical discord. The biggest change will be a re-prioritization of US LNG. At $7.5/mcf, there is 200MTpa of upside by 2030, which could also abate 1GTpa of CO2. This 15 page note outlines our conclusions.
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Glass fiber: what upside in the energy transition?
Glass fiber makes up 50% of a wind turbine blade, lightens vehicles and insulates homes for 30-70% energy savings. Hence we see demand rising 3.5x in the energy transition. To appraise the opportunity, this 13-page note assesses the market, costs, CO2 intensity and leading companies.
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Renewables: can they ramp up faster?
How fast can wind and solar accelerate, especially if energy shortages persist? This 11-page note reviews the top ten bottlenecks. Seven value chains will tighten enormously in the coming years. Paradoxically, however, ramping renewables could exacerbate near-term energy shortages.
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Energy crisis: ten themes for 2022?
We are all hoping for ‘normalization’ in 2022. But what if the world is instead entering a full-blown energy crisis, as severe and persistent as the first ‘oil shock’? This 21-page note lays out ten hypotheses, drawing on history. Everything we know about energy transition may change this year.
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Decarbonizing global energy: the route to net zero?
This 18-page report revises our roadmap for the world to reach ‘net zero’ by 2050. The average cost is still $40/ton of CO2, with an upper bound of $120/ton, but this masks material mix-shifts. New opportunities are largest in efficiency gains, under-supplied commodities, power-electronics, conventional CCUS and nature-based CO2 removals.
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Solar decline rates: causes and solutions?
The average solar asset declines at 2.5% per year. This 14-page note reviews the causes. We find humid climates moderate Potential Induced Degradation, adding a relative headwind in coastal geographies and floating solar. But an exciting way to mitigate declines is emerging via smaller inverters.
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Green steel: circular reference?
Steel explains almost c10% of global CO2. Hence 2021 has seen the world’s first green steel, made using green hydrogen. Yet inflation worries us. At $7.5/kg H2, green steel would cost 2x conventional steel. In turn, doubling the global steel price would re-inflate green H2 costs. This note explores inflationary feedback loops and other options…
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Is the world investing enough in energy?
Global energy investment in 2020-21 has been running 10% below the level needed on our roadmap to net zero. Under-investment is steepest for solar, wind and gas. Under-appreciated is that each $1 dis-invested from fossil fuels must be replaced with $25 in renewables. Future capex needs are vast.
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Back-stopping renewables: the nuclear option?
Nuclear power can backstop much volatility in renewables-heavy grids, for costs of 15-25c/kWh. This is at least 70% less costly than large batteries or green hydrogen, but could see less wind and solar developed overall. Our 13-page note reviews the opportunity.
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