Search results for: “renewables”
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Power grids: when will wind and solar peak?
Wind and solar will most likely peak at 50-55% of power grids, without demand-shifting and batteries; more in wind-heavy grids, less in solar heavy grids. This 12-page note draws conclusions from the statistical distribution of renewables’ generation across 100,000 x 5-minute grid intervals.
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US electric utilities: transmission and distribution costs?
This data-file evaluates transmission and distribution costs, averaging 7c/kWh in 2024, based on granular disclosures for 200 regulated US electric utilities, which sell 65% of the US’s total electricity to 110M residential and commercial customers. Costs have doubled since 2005. Which utilities have rising rate bases and efficiently low opex?
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Gas power generation across five-minute intervals?
Power generation data are aggregated for ten of the largest CCGTs and gas peaker plants in Australia, across five-minute intervals, May-2024 and May-2014. This makes for a fascinating case study into how gas turbines are used to stabilize power grids, backstop renewables, and how this has changed over time.
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Grid-scale battery operation: a case study?
Grid-scale batteries are not simply operated to store up excess renewables and move them to non-windy and non-sunny moments, in order to increase reneawble penetration rates. Their key practical rationale is providing short-term grid stability to increasingly volatile grids that need ‘synthetic inertia’. Their key economic rationale is arbitrage. Numbers are borne out by our…
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Coal power generation: minute-by-minute flexibility?
Coal power generation is aggregated in this data-file, at the largest single-unit coal power plant in Australia, across five-minute intervals, for the whole of 2023. The Kogan Creek coal plant produces stable baseload power, with average utilization rate of 85%. But it exhibits lower flexibility to backstop renewables than gas-fired generation.
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Global electricity: by source, by use, by region?
Global electricity supply-demand is disaggregated in this data-file, by source, by use, by region, from 1990 to 2050, triangulating across all of our other models in the energy transition, and culminating in over 50 fascinating charts, which can be viewed in this data-file. Global electricity demand rises 3x by 2050 in our outlook.
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Duck curves: US power price duckiness over time?
In solar-heavy grids, power prices trough around mid-day, then ramp up rapidly as the sunset. This price distribution over time is known as the duck curve. US power prices are getting 25-30% more ducky each year, based on some forms of measurement. Power prices are clearly linked to the instantaneous share of wind/solar in grids.
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Grid-forming inverters: islands in the sun?
The grid-forming inverter market may soon inflect from $1bn to $15-20bn pa, to underpin most grid-scale batteries, and 20-40% of incremental solar and wind. This 11-page report finds that grid-forming inverters cost c$100/kW more than grid-following inverters, which is inflationary, but integrate more renewables, raise resiliency and efficiency?
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eHighways: trucking by wire?
eHighways electrify heavy trucks via overhead catenary wires. They have been de-risked by half-a-dozen real-world pilots. High-utilization routes can support 10% IRRs on both road infrastructure and hybrid trucks. This 15-page report finds benefits in logistics networks and for integrating renewables?
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Economics of flywheels: fast frequency response?
The economics of flywheels can be stress-tested in this data-file, requiring a $500/kW fee for fast-frequency response, to generate a 10% IRR on c$10,000/kWh of capex costs, on a typical flywheel plant with around 15-minutes of energy storage. The rise of renewables and AI increasingly requires adding inertia to power grids. Flywheels may be one…
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