Search results for: “climate model”
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Carbon Offsets vs Renewable Diesel?
Could the rise of reforestation initiatives erode the value of renewable diesel? This data-file calculates purchasing CO2-credits to decarbonise diesel could cost 60-90% less than purchasing renewable diesel, at current pricing. Economically justified premia for biofuels are calculated.
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Molten Carbonate Fuel Cells: CCS plus Power? The Economics?
Molten Carbonate Fuel Cells could be extremely promising, generating electrical power from natural gas as an input, while also capturing CO2 from industrial flue gases through an electrochemical process. We model competitive economics. Our model runs of 18 input variables, which you can stress-test.
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Solar power: the economics?
Levelized costs of solar electricity are estimated at 7c/kWh in our base case, but can realistically range from 4-40c/kWh. This data-file is a breakdown of solar costs, as a function of capex, opex, insolation, curtailment and decline rates. Solar can be highly competitive, up to 35-50% of many power grids.
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Reforestation: costs of CO2 removals?
Reforestation costs are modelled in this data-file, acquiring pastureland, planting new forests to absorb CO2, over a 50-year cycle. As a good rule of thumb, we think $50/ton CO2 prices, $50/m3 timber, and 3% pa land appreciation will unlock an 8% unlevered IRR at Yield Class 16 (5 tons of CO2 per acre per year).…
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Should fuel retail stations sell carbon credits: the economics?
A fuel-retail station can uplift its FCF and valuation by c15-25% by offering CO2-offsets at the point of sale, alongside selling fuel. Gross profits from selling $50/ton carbon credits may be around 3x the typical EBIT margins of retail stations, hence we explore a particular sales model that can double fuel retail NPVs.
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Fully subsea offshore projects: the economics?
The model presents the economic impacts of developing a typical, 625Mboe offshore gas condensate field using a fully subsea solution, compared against installing a new production facility. The result is a c4% uplift in IRRs, a 50% uplift in NPV6 and a 33% reduction in the project’s gas-breakeven price. The economics are attractive.
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COVID-19 Impacts on Global Oil Demand?
Global oil demand could decline -22Mbpd YoY in 2Q20, due to COVID-19, with losses averaging 9-12 Mbpd across 2020. Our model looks line-by-line around the global oil market, to help you stress-test your own scenarios under different input assumptions.
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Restoring soil carbon: the economics?
We model the economics for conservation agriculture to restore soil carbon. 5-30T of CO2 can be sequestered per acre per year, while deflating farm costs by 36-73% and raising yields 10-20%. This would transform crop-growing economics from marginal to material.
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Jet fuel demand: by region and forecasts to 2050?
Jet fuel demand ran at 8Mbpd in 2019, the last year before COVID, and could rise to 18Mbpd by 2050, as global population rises 25%, jet fuel demand per capita doubles and fuel economy per aviation mile rises by 20%. This data file breaks down jet fuel demand by region, including our forecasts through 2050,…
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Renewable diesel: the economics?
Our base case is that a US renewable diesel facility must achieve $4.6/gallon sales revenues (which is c$200/bbl) as it commercializes a product with up to 75% lower embedded emissions than conventional diesel. Similarly, a bio-diesel facility must achieve $3.6/gallon sales on a product with 60% lower embedded emissions.
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