Search results for: “climate model”
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US shale: the economics?
This model breaks down the economics of US shale, including a granular build-up of capex costs across 18 different categories. Our base case requires a $40/bbl oil price for a 10% IRR at a $7.0M shale well with a 1.0 kboed IP30. Economics range from $35-50/bbl. They are most sensitive to productivity.
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Global steel supply-demand model?
Global steel supply-demand runs at 2GTpa in 2023, having doubled since 2003. Our best estimate is that steel demand rises another 80%, to 3.6GTpa by 2050, including due to the energy transition. Global steel production by country is now dominated by China, whose output exceeds 1GTpa, which is 8x the #2 producer, India, at 125MTpa.
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Road costs: economic model?
A typical road costs $3M/lane-km to construct, with an effective cost of $0.25 per vehicle-km subsequently travelled. The range varies with utilization and road complexity. Around 10% of the costs are materials, mainly aggregates, while the remainder of the capex is spent on construction and engineering.
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Japan gas and power: supply-demand model?
Japan’s gas and power markets are broken down by end use, traced back to 1990, and forecast forwards to 2030 in this model. Japan’s electricity demand now grows at 0.3% pa. Ramping renewables, nuclear and gas back-ups could halve Japan’s total grid CO2 intensity to below 0.25 kg/kWh by 2030.
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Australia energy supply-demand model?
Australia’s useful energy consumption rises from 820TWH pa in 2023, by 1.2% pa 1,100 TWH pa in 2050. As a world-leader in renewables, it makes for an interesting case study. This Australia energy supply-demand model is disaggreated across 215 line items, broken down by source, by use, from 1990 to 2023, and with our forecasts…
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European energy: the burial of the dead?
Europe’s energy ambitions are now intractable: It is just not feasible to satisfy former climate goals, new geopolitical realities, and also power future AI data centers. Hence this 18-page report evaluates Europe’s energy options; predicts how policies are going to change; and re-forecasts Europe’s gas and power balances, both to 2030 and to 2050.
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India: electricity demand and power grid over time?
India’s electricity demand is growing by 6-8% (+100-140 TWH) per year, but 75% of the total still comes from coal, which has itself grown at a 5% CAGR over the past half-decade. Wind and solar would need to grow 4x faster than 2023 levels for thermal generation just to flatline. What implications and opportunities for…
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Reforestation: what planting density for seedlings?
What is the typical planting density for reforestation projects globally? This matters as it can determine the costs of reforestation. Hence in this data-file we have collated data from 25 different case studies globally, which have tended to plant a median of 670 seedlings per acre (1,650 per hectare).
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CO2 removals: CO2OL Panama project?
The CO2OL Tropical Mix project has planted 9M trees on 13,000 hectares of degraded pasture land across 45 sites in Panama since 1995. 20-30% of the land is reserved for conservation. The project achieved a relatively high score of 88/100 on our usual assessment framework. CO2 credits are priced at $38/ton. We contributed $1,900 to…
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Cool customers: AI data-centers and industrial HVAC?
Chips must usually be kept below 27ºC, hence 10-20% of both the capex and energy consumption of a typical data-center is cooling, as explored in this 14-page report. How much does climate matter? What changes lie ahead? And which companies sell into this soon-to-double market for cooling equipment?
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