Search results for: “climate model”
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Ammonia: production costs and energy economics?
This data-file captures ammonia production costs and energy economics, starting from inputs of hydrogen and nitrogen, using the Haber process. Our base case is $450/ton NH3 and 2.4 tons/ton CO2 intensity. This matters as fertilizer production thus explains over 1% of global emissions.
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Renewables+gas LCOEs versus standalone gas turbines?
Levelized costs of electricity depend as much on the system being electrified as the energy sources used to electrify it. This data-file captures solar+gas LCOEs (in c/kWh), when meeting different load profiles, as a function of solar capex (in $/kW), gas prices (in $/mcf), and the relative utilization of solar vs gas.
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LNG transport: shipping economics?
This data-file breaks down the cost of shipping cryogenic cargoes in seaborne tankers. LNG costs $1-3/mcf. The most important input variable is transport distance. Although switching to e-fuels (green hydrogen, ammonia, methanol) can double total cost.
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Costs of hydrogen from coal gasification?
What are the costs of hydrogen from coal gasification? This model looks line-by-line, across different plant configurations, aggregating data from technical papers. Black hydrogen costs $1-2/kg. But CO2 intensity is very high, as much as 25 tons/ton. It can possibly be decarbonized resulting in semi-clean hydrogen costing c$2.5/kg.
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Diesel power generation: levelized costs?
A multi-MW scale diesel generator requires an effective power price of 20c/kWh, in order to earn a 10% IRR, on c$700/kW capex, assuming $70 oil prices and c150km trucking of oil products to the facility. Economics can be stress-tested in the Model-Base tab.
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Internet energy consumption: data, models, forecasts?
This data-file forecasts the energy consumption of the internet, rising from 800 TWH in 2022 to 2,000 TWH in 2030 and 3,750 TWH by 2050. The main driver is the energy consumption of AI, plus blockchains, rising traffic, and offset by rising efficiency. Input assumptions to the model can be flexed. Underlying data are from…
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Global vehicle fleet: vehicle sales and electrification by region?
We have modeled the global light vehicle fleet, light vehicle sales by region, and the world’s shift from internal combustion engines (ICEs) towards electric vehicles (EVs) through 2050. Our base case model sees almost 200M EV sales by 2050, and a c40% decline to around 1bn combustion vehicles in the world’s fleet by 2050.
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Polyurethane: production costs?
Polyurethane production costs are estimated at $2.5-3.0/kg in our base case model, which looks line-by-line across the inputs and outputs, of a complex, twenty stage production process, which ultimately yields spandex-lycra fibers. Costs depend on oil, gas and hydrogen input prices.
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Compressed air energy storage: costs and economics?
Our base case estimates for Compressed Air Energy Storage costs require a 26c/kWh storage spread to generate a 10% IRR at a $1,350/kW CAES facility, with 63% round-trip efficiency, charging and discharging 365 days per year. Our numbers are based on top-down project data and bottom up calculations, both for CAES capex (in $/kW) and…
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Gas peaker plants: the economics?
Gas peaker plants run at low utilizations of 2-20%, during times of peak demand in power grids. A typical peaker costing $950/kW and running at 10% utilization has a levelized cost of electricity around 20c/kWh, to generate a 10% IRR with 0.5 kg/kWh of CO2 intensity. This data-file shows the economic sensitivities to volatility and…
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