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  • Electric vehicle: battery life?

    Electric vehicle: battery life?

    Electric vehicle battery life will realistically need to reach 1,500 cycles for the average passenger vehicle, 2,000-3,000 cycles after reflecting a margin of safety for real-world statistical distributions, and 3,000-6,000 cycles for higher-use commercial vehicles. This means lithium ion batteries may be harder to displace with novel chemistries?

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  • Model of losses in a solar cell: surface, emitter and shading?

    Model of losses in a solar cell: surface, emitter and shading?

    This data-file calculates the losses in a solar cell from first principles. Losses on the surface of the cell are typically c4%, due to contact resistance, emitter resistance and shading. Sensitivity analysis suggests there may be future potential to halve silver content in a solar cell from 20g/kW to 10g/kW without materially increasing the losses…

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  • Energy economics: an overview?

    Energy economics: an overview?

    This data-file provides an overview of energy economics, across 175 different economic models constructed by Thunder Said Energy, in order to put numbers in context. This helps to compare marginal costs, capex costs, energy intensity, interest rate sensitivity, and other key parameters that matter in the energy transition.

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  • Global energy market model for the energy transition?

    Global energy market model for the energy transition?

    This data-file is a global energy market model for the energy transition. It contains long-term energy supply-demand forecasts by energy source; based on a dozen core input assumptions. Total useful energy consumed by human civilization rises from 80,000 TWH pa to 140,000 TWH pa by 2050. The mix is 30% gas, 30% solar, 15% oil,…

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  • Energy transition companies?

    Energy transition companies?

    This database contains a record of every company that has ever been mentioned across Thunder Said Energy’s energy technology research, as a useful reference for TSE’s clients. The database summarizes 3,000 mentions of 1,700 energy transition companies, broader energy producing and consuming companies, their size, focus and a summary of our key conclusions, plus links…

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  • AI: industrial applications by company?

    AI: industrial applications by company?

    This data-file tabulates industrial companies deploying AI, based on their patent filings. 200 leading industrial companies have filed 40,000 AI/ML-related patents in 2022-24, with 65% now developing their own AIs in house. Examples are summarized. We will continue adding to and expanding this data-file over time.

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  • Groq: AI inference breakthrough?

    Groq: AI inference breakthrough?

    Groq has developed LPUs for AI inference, which are up to 10x faster and 80-90% more energy efficient than todayโ€™s GPUs. This 8-page Groq technology review assesses its patent moat, LPU costs, implications for our AI energy models, and whether Groq could ever dethrone NVIDIAโ€™s GPUs?

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  • Data-centers: the economics?

    Data-centers: the economics?

    The capex costs of data-centers are typically $10M/MW, with opex costs dominated by maintenance (c40%), electricity (c15-25%), labor, water, G&A and other. A 30MW data-center must generate $100M of revenues for a 10% IRR, while an AI data-center in 2024 may need to charge $5/EFLOP of compute.

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  • Computer memory: aide memoire?

    Computer memory: aide memoire?

    Three types of computer memory dominate modern information processing: Flash, DRAM and SRAM. This 5-page note simply covers each one, how it works, what it costs, advantages, disadvantages, market sizes and leading companies. AI likely boosts all three, but can more SRAM unlock big efficiency gains?

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  • Energy and AI: the power and the glory? ย 

    Energy and AI: the power and the glory? ย 

    The power demands of AI will contribute to the largest growth of new generation capacity in history. This 18-page note evaluates the power implications of AI data-centers. Reliability is crucial. Gas demand grows. Annual sales of CCGTs and back-up gensets in the US both rise by 2.5x? This is our most detailed AI report to…

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