Search results for: “volatility”
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Load bearing: will solar+gas be cheaper than gas alone?
The costs to power a real-world load – e.g., a data center – with solar+gas will very often be more expensive than via a standalone gas CCGT in the US today. But not internationally? Or in the future? This 9-page note shows how solar deflation and load shifting can boost solar to >40% of future…
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Demand shifting: electrical flexibility by industry?
Demand shifting flexes electrical loads in a power grid, to smooth volatility and absorb more renewables. This database scores technical potential and economical potential of different electricity-consuming processes to shift demand, across materials, manufacturing, industrial heat, transportation, utilities, residential HVAC and commercial loads.
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Coal-to-gas switching: what CO2 abatement cost?
Coal-to-gas switching halves the CO2 emissions per unit of primary energy. This data-file estimates the CO2 abatement costs. Gas is often more expensive than coal. But as a rule of thumb, a $30-60/ton CO2 price makes $6-8/mcf gas competitive with $60-80/ton coal. CO2 abatement costs are materially lower in the US and after reflecting efficiency.…
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Renewable grids: solar, wind and grid-scale battery sizing?
How much wind, solar and/or batteries are required to supply a stable power output, 24-hours per day, 7-days per week, or at even longer durations? This data-file stress-tests different scenarios, with each 1MW of average load requiring at least 3.5MW of solar and 3.5MW of lithium ion batteries, for a total system cost of at…
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Solar variability: how much does solar energy vary by year?
This data-file aggregates the average annual volatility of solar (and wind) resources across ten locations, mainly cities, in the United States. Annual volatility of incoming solar energy reaching ground level tends to vary by +/- 6% per year, is 96% correlated across different locations within that city, and 50-70% correlated with other cities in the…
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Coal power generation: minute-by-minute flexibility?
Coal power generation is aggregated in this data-file, at the largest single-unit coal power plant in Australia, across five-minute intervals, for the whole of 2023. The Kogan Creek coal plant produces stable baseload power, with average utilization rate of 85%. But it exhibits lower flexibility to backstop renewables than gas-fired generation.
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Solar power: the economics?
Levelized costs of solar electricity are estimated at 7c/kWh in our base case, but can realistically range from 4-40c/kWh. This data-file is a breakdown of solar costs, as a function of capex, opex, insolation, curtailment and decline rates. Solar can be highly competitive, up to 35-50% of many power grids.
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Storage tank costs: storing oil, energy, water and chemicals?
Storage tank costs are tabulated in this data-file, averaging $100-300/m3 for storage systems of 10-10,000 m3 capacity. Costs are 2-10x higher for corrosive chemicals, cryogenic storage, or very large/small storage facilities. Some rules of thumb are outlined below with underlying data available in the Excel.
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Global LNG supply model: by project and by country?
Global LNG output ran at 406MTpa in 2024. This model estimates global LNG production by facility across 150 LNG facilities. Our latest forecasts are that global LNG demand will rise at a 6% CAGR, to reach 710MTpa by 2035, for an absolute growth rate of +30MTpa per year, but there is a supply-crunch in 2024-26,…
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California power generation over time?
California’s power grid ranges from 26-61GW of demand. Utility scale solar has almost quadrupled in the past decade, rising from 5% to almost 20% of the grid. Yet it has not displaced thermal generation, which rose from 28% to 36% of the grid. We even wonder whether wind and solar are entrenching natural gas generators…
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