Commentary Insights - Thunder Said Energy

Aerial Vehicles Re-Shape Transportation Costs?

This model calculates costs per passenger-kilometer for transportation, based on input costs. Aerial vehicles could compete with taxis as early as 2025. By the 2030s, their costs can be c60% below car ownership.

Who’s Afraid of Aerial Vehicles?

This data-file tabulates consumer attitudes towards aerial vehicles, based on the best perception study we have seen in the technical literature. It shows the influence of geography, income, age, gender, education levels and length of commute; along with top concerns.

Digital Deflation: How Hard to Save $1/boe?

A typical operator can readily save $1/boe via continued, digital deflation. Our numbers are derived from a new case study from Cognite, which is among the leaders in oilfield digitization, collaborating with cutting-edge E&Ps. Digitization remains the most promising opportunity to improve offshore economics.

Round Trip Battery Efficiencies

Different batteries have different round trip efficiencies. We see great potential, for example, in electrification of the vehicle fleet, which can achieve c3.5x efficiency gains. We see less potential, for example, backing up the grid with hydrogen, which reduces total system efficiency by c30%.

A Short History of Travel Speeds

Top travel speeds have increased c100x since pre-industrial times, however in the past 20-years, the trend has reversed. Average mobility is down c6-7% since 2000. This data-file contains our notes and the data-points we have compiled on travel-times throughout history.

June 5, 2019

Oil Companies Drive the Energy Transition?

There is only one way to decarbonise the energy system: leading companies must find economic opportunities in better technologies. No other route can source sufficient capital to re-shape such a vast industry that spends c$2trn per annum. We outline seven game-changing opportunities. Leading energy Majors are already pursuing them in their portfolios, patents and venturing.…

Chemical Looping Progress?

Chemical Looping Combustion could clean up future coal or gas-fired power. But will it work? We have tabulated data from the technical literature on 40 chemical looping combustion pilots. They have run collectively for 10,000 hours. They promise 38% energy efficiencies for zero carbon emissions.

Vehicles: fuel economy and energy efficiency?

We have quantified the energy efficiency of 14 different transportation technologies, using real-world data and mechanics equations. Electrification raises auto efficiency 4x, from c15-20% to c60-80%. Novel electric technologies are also unlocking unprecedented fuel economies per passenger mile.

Explaining Shale: Can Machine Learning Capture Complexity?

Machine learning predicts 78% of the variance in shale well productivity, suggesting $1M/well savings and 19-97% resource uplifts. This data-file presents the correlation matrix between 22 inter-related variables which co-vary with well productivity. The complexity requires “big data” approaches. We see upside from Machine Learning in shale.

Shale EOR: the economics

This model assesses shale-EOR economics, as a function of oil prices, gas prices, production-profiles and capex costs. 15-20% IRRs are attainable in our base case. Economics are getting increasingly exciting, as the technology is de-risked and more gas is stranded in key shale basins.

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