Commentary Insights - Thunder Said Energy

May 22, 2019

Shale EOR: Container Class

Is Shale-EOR the next wave of unconventional upside? The topic jumped into the ‘Top 10’ most researched shale themes last year. Stranded in-basin gas will improve the economics. Production per well can rise by 1.5-2x. The theme could add 2.5Mbpd to YE25 output.

The World’s Great Gas Fields and Their CO2

This data-file tabulates 30 major gas resources around the world, their volumes, their CO2 content and how the CO2 is handled. This matters because higher CO2 gas fields are more costly to develop into LNG, while CO2 venting is no longer acceptable without CCS. Permian & Marcellus LNG are best positioned.

Machine Learning to Optimise Rod Pumps

This data-file summarises progress using machine learning to maximise production from mature wells, by detecting errors and optimising production. There is potential to lower global decline rates by c100kbpd per annum for over a decade, and increase each well’s NPV by $0.1M.

Our Top Technologies for IMO 2020

We review the top, proprietary technologies that we have seen from analysing patents and technical papers, to capitalise on IMO 2020 sulphur regulation, across the world’s leading integrated oil companies.

Small-Scale LNG liquefaction Costs: New Opportunities?

Small-scale LNG technologies can be economic at $10/mcf, generating 15% pre-tax IRRs, off $3/mcf input gas. This data-file tabulates the line-by-line costs of typical small-scale LNG technologies (SMRs, N2 expansion). Against this baseline, we model a more cutting-edge technology, which preserves strong economics at c25x smaller scale.

May 12, 2019

LNG in transport: scaling up by scaling down?

Next-generation technology in small-scale LNG has potential to reshape the global shipping-fuels industry. Especially after IMO 2020 sulphur regulations, LNG should compete with diesel. This note outlines the technologies, economics and opportunities for LNG as a transport fuel.

How do LNG costs vary with plant size?

This data-file tabulates a dozen data-points on LNG plant opex, from company disclosures, the technical literature and academic papers. Opex is a function of plant size, and tends to fall by $0.3/mcf for each 10x change in plant capacity.

TRLs: When does technology get exciting?

We categorised 300 of the Oil Majors’ technologies according to their technical maturity. The most exciting are those on the cusp of commercialisation, not simply the most mature. We found Majors that work on earlier-stage technologies also had better overall technologies. Value can be maximised by a rich funnel of opportunities.

Re-Frac Economics. How much uplift?

Re-fracturing Permian and Eagle Ford shale wells holds potential at higher oil prices. Our base case assumes $0.5M NPV/well uplifts, and $45/bbl breakevens. Higher prices and process-enhancements can unlock $2-3M of NPV10/well. Oxy and Devon lead the technical literature.

LNG as a Shipping Fuel: the Economics

This data-file provides line-by-line cost estimates for LNG as a shipping fuel, for trucked LNG, small-scale LNG and bunkered LNG. After IMO 2020 regulations buoy diesel pricing, it should be economical to fuel newbuild ships with small-scale LNG; and in the US it should be economical to convert pre-existing ships to LNG.

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