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Fiber optic data transmission costs?
The costs of fiber optic data transmission run at $0.25/TB per 1,000km in order to earn a 10% IRR on constructing a link with $120 per meter capex costs. Capex is 85% of the total cost. This data fiber breaks down the costs of fiber optic data transmission from first principles, across capex, utilization, electricity…
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Counter-drone: can the Strait of Hormuz be re-opened?
Is it possible to re-open shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, and protect broader Persian Gulf energy infrastructure, from thousands of Iranian Shahed drones? Today’s 9-page report reviews Shahed drones, counter-Unmanned Aerial Systems (cUAS), and implications across global energy markets.
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Wind and solar: curtailments over time?
Wind and solar curtailments now average 8% across different grids that we have evaluated in this data-file, and have generally been rising over time, especially in 2024-25. The key reason is grid bottlenecks. Grid expansions are crucial for wind and solar to continue expanding.
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Reserve margins: by ISO and over time?
Reserve margins across major ISOs in the US power grid average 26% in 2026, are seen declining to 10% in the next decade by NERC, and turning negative in regions such as PJM and MISO. Surging power demand and resource retirements are the culprits, although may not unfold as feared. This data-file tabulates reserve margin…
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US electricity demand growth: anywhere from 1-3%?
US electricity demand growth is a crucial debate. It affects everything. To bound the uncertainty, we assessed twenty input variables, and ran a Monte Carlo, in this 16-page report. Our new base case sees +2.0% pa demand growth to 2035. Our 90% confidence interval is 1-3% pa. What implications for gas and power?
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Geothermal energy: costs and economics?
Geothermal energy costs are modelled from first principles in this data-file. LCOEs of 6c/kWh are available in geothermal hotspots. Outside of the hotspots, enhanced geothermal heat can cost 2-14c/kWh-th for a 10% IRR on $500-5,000/kW-th capex, while a rule of thumb is that geothermal electricity costs 5x geothermal heat.
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Starship space launch: energy and capital goods?
How much energy would be required to support ongoing launches of Starship spacecrafts into Low Earth Orbit? And what capital equipment would be needed to liquefy this LNG fuel and oxygen propellant? This data-file calculates hourly launches would require 1.4bcfd of gas, 9MTpa of LNG liquefaction, 34MTpa of oxygen ASUs, 1.4GW of compression power and…
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US electricity demand: by sector, by use, over time?
US electricity sales reached 4,430 TWH in 2024, rising +3% YoY, and bringing the trailing ten-year CAGR to 1% pa. The current breakdown is 37% residential, 37% commercial, 26% industrial. All three are now growing. To help understand load growth, this data-file is a breakdown of US electricity demand by sector, by use and over…
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US gas power: generation by facility over time?
US gas power generation by facility is broken down in this data-file, across 1,850 active gas-power plants, supplying 40% of all US electricity. Descriptive statistics are available in the summary tab, a state-by-state breakdown follows in the PlantsByState tab and underlying data on all 3,000 historical facilities are provided in the AllGasPlants tab.
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Gallium nitride: GaN mentality?
Gallium Nitride (GaN) is a remarkable semiconductor. GaN forms a 2-Dimension Electron Gas (2DEG), with exceptional electron mobility, which supports high switching frequency, improved power quality, 50-70% lower losses and 50-70% smaller devices. It is thus a crucial enabler for large AI racks. This 13-page report reviews the technology, device costs, and future market drivers.
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