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Alaska LNG: project economics?
Alaska LNG project economics are captured in this data-file, capable of landing gas into Asia at $9/mcf while also earning a 10% project-level IRR, as long as the total project can be delivered on time and on budget at $44bn. Inflation to $60bn erodes the IRR to 6% or requires a $12/mcf landed price into…
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Nuclear Power Project Economics
This data-file models the costs of nuclear power project, based on technical papers and past projects around the industry. An up-front capex cost of $6,000/kW might yield a levelized cost of 15c/kWh. But 6-10c/kWh is achievable via a renaissnace in next-generation nuclear.
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Nuclear uprates: capex costs?
Nuclear uprates could add 5-10GW to the US’s 100GW nuclear fleet, simply by running existing reactors harder or upgrading their equipment. The capex costs of nuclear uprates are tabulated in this data-file, across a dozen case studies, ranging from $200 – $7,000/kW. Does this position uprates ahead of SMRs on the nuclear cost curve?
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Nuclear SMRs: grown ups?
Can small modular reactors (SMRs) reignite growth in the nuclear industry, by halving capex to $3,000-4,000/kW, thus reducing levelized costs of zero-carbon electricity to 8-10 c/kWh? This 18-page report presents five considerations around SMR costs, to help understand the risks of persistently high capex requirements. We still see gas and solar dominating future load growth.
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Next-generation nuclear companies: future fission and fusion?
This data-file screens c30 next-generation nuclear companies at the cutting edge of fission and fusion technology. The median one employs 100 people, is developing a 150MWe reactor, and could reach commerciality by 2035. But how has this landscape of companies progressed in the past few years?
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Dunkelflaute: how big do the batteries need to be?
How big would the batteries need to be, to ride through the biggest dunkelflautes that occur each year, in renewable-heavy grids? This 8-page report has gathered data for Spain, the UK and California. 30 GWH of storage per GW of renewables would help ride through wind-driven dunkelflautes. But shutting thermal generation still seems unfeasible. Thus…
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Renewable-heavy grids: total system costs?
Renewables can have similar LCOEs as conventional generation sources. Yet ramping renewables to c50% of a developed world power grid inflates total system costs by at least 50%. This is because renewables require back-ups, additional T&D and power electronics. This 16-page report aims to quantify the total system costs of renewable-heavy grids, and their implications.
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US LPG exports: the economics?
This data-file captures the economics of LPG exports, ethane exports, and/or propane exports from North America to Europe and Asia. Capex costs of LPG exports are c50% below LNG. Recent pricing underpins project-level c30% IRRs. The project pipeline is growing, but the data in this model of LPG exports do suggest strong returns for existing…
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Solid state transformers: the architect’s dream?
Solid-state transformers are a beautiful re-imagining of power distribution sub-stations. They could become economically appealing around 2030, especially in renewable- and AI-heavy grids. This 15-page report explores SST technology, quantifying costs, efficiency, challenges and implications (in grids, and for MOSFET/SiC demand).
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Power price volatility: where are the opportunities?
Does real-world power price volatility follow a regular daily pattern (suited to batteries), incur periodic and protracted price spikes (suited to gas back-ups), or fluctuate somewhat randomly in real time (suited to DSR, batteries and gas generation?). To answer this question, we have attributed 2024 power price volatility, in the wind-heavy UK grid (9-pages) and…
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