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LNG liquefaction: the economics?
This model captures the economics of a typical LNG liquefaction project. In our base case, a greenfield LNG project costing $900/Tpa in capex must charge a $4/mcf liquefaction spread for a 10% IRR. $3.5/mcf input gas prices thus result in $7.5/mcf LNG on the water. Numbers can be stress-tested in the file.
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Wind and solar: total resource estimates?
This 16-page report estimates the total global resource potential from solar and wind. Solar resources are 20-100x larger than for wind. And more economical. Wind turbine wake losses are a growing controversy. Hence, will future renewables growth shift more towards solar?
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LNG supply chain: by company by component?
This data-file breaks down the global LNG supply chain, by company, by component, by assessing 50 LNG projects from 2014 to 2030, who won the order flow, for which components, and at what price. The LNG supply chain has gone through unprecedented upheaval, ramification and re-integration.
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Deep Fission: next-gen nuclear technology?
Deep Fission is designing a next-generation nuclear reactor, placing small modular reactors in 1-mile-deep boreholes, which provide exceptional containment, and may eliminate up to 80% of the surface costs of large nuclear plants. We find strong inherent safety features and can de-risk c50% lower costs than large fission reactors via the Deep Fission technology.
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Wind turbines: wake losses?
Wind turbine wake losses would deprive a downstream wind turbine of 70% of its generation capacity at 350m immediately downwind of a modern wind turbine, 50% at 700m, 40% at 1km, 20% at 2km and 10% at 4km. This is based on the Jensen model and case studies tabulated in this data-file. More recently, some…
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Solar-powered EVs: ICE challenge?
Although renewables are c50% inflationary in static grids, this 12-page study shows how solar can be deflationary when coupled with flexible loads. By 2030, the total system costs of solar-powered EVs will be 12% below the costs of oil-fueled ICEs, on a pure economic basis, excluding CO2. We are updating our EV and oil demand…
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Gas storage: the economics?
Gas storage economics are captured in this data-file. In our base case, a 30bcf underground storage facility, which cycles 2mcf per year of gas per mcf of gas capacity, requires a storage spread of $1.5/mcf to generate a 10% IRR off $19/mcf of capex. Effectively, this is inter-seasonal energy storage for 0.5c/kWh-th.
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Costs of demand response: Voltus case studies?
Demand response, aka load shifting, or virtual power plants, keep power grids in balance by curtailing non-essential loads, during times that would otherwise require ramping up peaker plants, or when grids simply do not have enough capacity overall. The costs of demand response are estimated at c$60/kW/year, across 25 case studies in this data-file, for…
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Renewables: share of global energy and electricity by country?
This data-file is an Excel visualizer for some of the key headline metrics around renewables’ share of global energy: such as total global energy use, electricity generation by source, wind penetration and solar penetration; broken down country-by-country, and showing how these metrics have changed over time, in an easy-to-compare visual format.
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US shale gas: how much is left?
If the US ramps its gas output from 114bcfd to 150bcfd, mostly from shales, then how long can this resource last? And are any basins showing signs of maturing? This 16-page report finds marginal costs are already rising at $0.1/mcf/year, prices can spike to $4/mcf+, and future activity may shift to the Permian, creating opportunities…
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