Report Insights - Thunder Said Energy

Does Technology Drive Returns?

30-60% of Oil Majors’ ROACE is explained by their technologies. This is our finding from correlating 3,000 oil patents versus returns on capital. Technology leaders can generate 2x higher corporate ROACEs. Downstream segments are most sensitive.

Lula: how much growth left?

This data-file tracks the Lula oilfield, well-by-well, FPSO-by-FPSO, aggregating data from over 100 sources. The data inform our production forecasts for 2H19 and 1H20, which matter for oil markets; and for pre-salt producers. The data show wne FPSO is now constrained by gas-handling. Six other FPSOs are negotiating water-cuts. So is Lula maturing?

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Decline Rates: the consensus?

Global decline rates are currently seen at 5.2% pa in 2020-25, according to our survey. This is lower than historical consensus of 5.7%. Although shale is a headwind, it may be offset by the rise of new digital and offshore technologies. Hence modestly more participants see 2020-25 oil markets as over-supplied.

Permian Pipeline Bottlenecks?

This data-file tracks 50 oil and gas pipelines in the Permian basin — their route, their capacity and their construction progress — in order to assess the severity of pipeline bottlenecks. Oil bottlenecks are moderate, but will ease into 2020. Gas bottlenecks are more severe and remain so.

Dreaming of Electric Frac Fleets?

In 2019, the virtues of switching diesel-powered frac fleets to gas-powered electric have been extolled by companies such as EOG, Shell, Baker Hughes, Halliburton, Evolution and US Well Services.

New Risers for pre-salt Brazil?

Petrobras has patented next-generation riser designs, to handle sour-service crude from pre-salt Brazil. This is needed after riser-failures at Lula. But complexity is an order of magnitude higher for Petrobras’s new solution. A simpler alternative is the growing potential from thermo-plastic composite pipe.

TOTAL’s Plastic-Recycling Progress?

TOTAL is currently pioneering the greatest advances in plastic-recycling technologies among the Majors, based on our database of 3,000 patents. This data-file covers its comprehensive inter-mixing of chromium-catalysed polyethylene, to reduce defects and increase the strength of post-consumer resins. In turn, this extends their use to films, containers and pipes.

Well-by-well optimisation?

Well-by-well production optimisation can uplift mature fields’ output 5-20%. This data-file summarises the methodology employed by BP, which has filed the most detailed patent we have seen on the topic, from our screen of 3,000 patents around the industry.

Power Trains? Electric, diesel or hydrogen

This data-file compares diesel trains, electric trains and hydrogen trains, according to their energy consumption, carbon emissions and fuel costs. The energy economics are best for electrifying rail-lines. Hydrogen costs must deflate 25-75% to be cost-competitive.

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